Matt's Picks (4 Live)
The Stars try for a 2-0 lead over the Oilers. ...
Matt's Past Picks
Julius Randle has completely blown past this number in five straight games and nine of the past 10. And we are getting 18.5 (BetRivers-affiliated books tend to be a bit contrarian) when I see red-hot expert Mike Barner played this at 19.5. Our model has JR at 18.8 points.
I'm a big George Kirby guy and in fact the Mariners righty was my longer-shot AL Cy Young pick in 2024. He was quite good but not that good. Kirby hasn't pitched in the Show in 2025 due to shoulder inflammation and only got to 64 pitches in his final rehab start, so this seems a bit overpriced on Seattle as if Kirby will go eight strong. Maybe five. Houston's Lance McCullers Jr. was one of the AL's better pitchers as recently as 2021 but injuries have derailed his career. He has been good in two of his three starts this year and was shredded in the other. Houston is 15-9 at home. One-run loss fine by me.
This is my absolute last time fading Florida on the road in the 2025 playoffs should the Cats bite me again. I just can't imagine with how good Carolina has been on home ice that it would lose again there. This is the season. The Panthers clearly got into the Canes' heads with some physical play in Game 1. Carolina did outshoot, outhit and outdraw (won in faceoff circle) Florida. The Hurricanes are 2-0 in games following losses this postseason, outscoring opponents 9-2 with one shutout.
Toss-up in my mind so only a half unit, but I need a reason not to play a home team -- apparently whenever one is facing Florida suffices -- and I don't have a reason not to here. The Stars have the payback motivation, the better goalie and defense. Edmonton netminder Stuart Skinner was fantastic the final two games of the last round but terrible in the three previous. And if he were to get hurt in mid-game, the Oilers are in big trouble with Calvin Pickard still out injured. Shoot, if I'm the Stars I'm taking runs at Skinner for that reason. Hypothetically of course. Dallas was 28-10-3 at home during the RS and has won six straight playoff games there.
Haven't really done much on Marty this year since he left the White Sox, but he's back in "form." After a hot start by his standards, which means a .237 average on April 21, Maldonado is down to .188 on the year and 3-for-21 with eight strikeouts this month. If he gets a hit off Jays starter Kevin Gausman, it's a duck snort or something lucky. And then maybe the Padres sub him out for offense if they are down in the later innings.
Cool temps and winds blowing in about 10 mph from center field in Pittsburgh. Offenses often struggle in a day game after a night one -- and the teams combined for a single run last night. Pirates starter Andrew Heaney has been solid with a 3.02 ERA, while the Reds' Brady Singer has a 3.31 ERA in two starts during the day. A couple of Pirates regulars are taking a seat.
The Royals' Michael Lorenzen is 1-4 with a 5.35 ERA on the road and the KC bullpen is very thinned-out having been used a lot both Sunday and Monday. Wilmer Flores smashes Lorenzen career, going 7-for-14 with three homers. SF's Hayden Birdsong is a glorified opener but has a 1.69 home ERA.
I'm still pretty flabbergasted how bad Florida made the Maple Leafs look on their own ice in Game 7 on Sunday night. So impressive for the Cats but utterly depressing yet again for those of us tired of watching Toronto Game 7 meltdowns. I've had a pretty good NHL season but seems like I don't do well fading the Panthers. The only reason I will in Game 1 is that they have to turn around and play so soon after a long series. Carolina is well-rested and the only team without a home loss this postseason. Frederik Andersen leads all goalies in GAA and SV as well. This series will probably be a slugfest full of 2-1 or 3-2 games.
I don't think much of Yankees pitcher Will Warren, but no way that Rangers lefty Patrick Corbin (3-2, 3.35 ERA) suddenly got good for the first time in six years and at age 35. New York leads the majors in OPS against southpaws at .869. Cody Bellinger is raking during a 13-game hitting streak and is a career .391 hitter off Corbin. Texas, still without Corey Seager, is 8-13 on the road.
Tampa Bay's Zach Littell has three straight quality starts and hasn't allowed more than three earned since April 10. It's the first big-league start and Astros debut for lefty Brandon Walter. The 28-year-old made his big-league debut last year with Boston and got into nine games in relief with a 6.26 ERA. Houston almost surely is without closer Josh Hader and top setup man Bryan Abreu as both have pitched Sunday and Monday.
OK, that was not a fun MLB weekend. Think I will avoid the Padres for a while. I'd obviously prefer 3.5 here (priced -160 at BR) but I'm always taking 3 runs on a home team in MLB. Easy flat spot for the Phils after a long homestand and the bad news received on Sunday that top reliever Jose Alvarado was suspended 80 games and is ineligible for the postseason.