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Matt Severance

Severance Pays

Matt Severance is a well-connected writer and high-volume handicapper who has worked in the industry since 2005. After joining SportsLine, Matt quickly established himself as a top expert in multiple sports. Over the past three NBA seasons, Matt has returned $4,452 to $100 bettors. Over the past four MLB seasons, Matt is up $1,681. And over the past five college basketball seasons, Matt is up $1,008. He also has excelled in two straight NFL seasons, returning $2,010 to $100 players, and is coming off a profitable 2024 college football campaign (plus $564). Matt believes in buying points in football to get off a push number like 3 or 7. He understands that oddsmakers don't do as much homework on lower-tier FBS games, creating betting opportunities. And he says homefield advantage is underrated in some markets and overrated in others. For Matt Severance media inquiries, contact SportsLine@CBSInteractive.com.

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LAST 245 NBA PICKS
+3211.25
RECORD: 158-86-1
# 2 NBA EXPERT
+3211.25
158-86-1 IN LAST 245 NBA PICKS

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Matt's Picks (5 Live)

May 09 2025, 11:30 pm UTC
League
Cleveland
@ Indiana
Matt's PickSubscribers Only
Unit0.5
+2457.25
95-39 in Last 134 NBA Player Props Picks
Analysis:

How will Donovan Mitchell fare vs. the Pacers? ...

Pick Made: Fri 4:57 pm UTC on BetRivers
May 09 2025, 11:40 pm UTC
League
Boston
@ Kansas City
Matt's PickSubscribers Only
Unit0.5
Analysis:

Sox rookie Hunter Dobbins makes his first road start. ...

Pick Made: Fri 8:05 am UTC on FanDuel
May 09 2025, 11:40 pm UTC
League
Miami
@ Chi. White Sox
Matt's PickSubscribers Only
Unit0.5
+1603.5
95-49 in Last 144 MLB Picks
+1223
24-5 in Last 29 MLB ATS Picks
+1357
39-19 in Last 58 CHW ATS Picks
Analysis:

The new Pope is a White Sox fan. ...

Pick Made: Fri 2:48 pm UTC on FanDuel
May 10 2025, 12:10 am UTC
League
Cincinnati
@ Houston
Matt's PickSubscribers Only
Unit1.0
+1603.5
95-49 in Last 144 MLB Picks
+337
44-25 in Last 69 MLB ML Picks
+558.5
11-6 in Last 17 CIN ML Picks
Analysis:

Hunter Brown is among the AL Cy Young favorites. ...

Pick Made: Fri 7:51 am UTC on FanDuel
May 10 2025, 1:30 am UTC
League
Dallas Stars
@ Winnipeg Jets
Matt's PickSubscribers Only
Unit0.5
+3680
140-67-8 in Last 215 NHL Sides Picks
+1851.5
90-49 in Last 139 NHL ML Picks
+1898
51-23 in Last 74 WPG ML Picks
Analysis:

Josh Morrissey is likely back for Winnipeg tonight. ...

Pick Made: Fri 3:35 pm UTC on BetMGM

Matt's Past Picks

May 09 2025, 12:30 am UTC
League
Golden St.
93
@ Minnesota
117
+2457.25
95-39 in Last 134 NBA Player Props Picks
Analysis:

Buddy Hield scored four total points in Games 5-6 vs. Houston but has since scored 33 and 24, respectively, and certainly should get plenty of shot attempts with Steph Curry out as now Hield is the team's top 3-point threat. I'd imagine the Wolves focus their defense on Jimmy Butler sans Curry.

Pick Made: Thu 4:28 pm UTC on BetRivers
May 08 2025, 11:00 pm UTC
League
Carolina Hurricanes
1
@ Washington Capitals
3
+3680
140-67-8 in Last 215 NHL Sides Picks
+2718.5
77-31-8 in Last 116 NHL ATS Picks
+457.5
10-3-1 in Last 14 CAR ATS Picks
Analysis:

I took a road team on Wednesday I think for the first time this NHL postseason and paid the price on Florida. Went against my gut, which was Leafs +1. Because in playoff games, I usually like that goal in the pocket to know OT won't gut me -- especially on a home team. Ah well. I'm thrilled personally Toronto won. I do believe Carolina is the better team in this series, RS standings regardless. But we are gonna take the East's top team at home getting +1 in the Caps as we did Game 1 (push unless you played regulation, which is smart). Can't go down 2-0 or it's basically over heading to Raleigh.

Pick Made: Thu 2:41 am UTC on BetRivers
May 08 2025, 6:10 pm UTC
League
Chi. White Sox
0
@ Kansas City
10
Analysis:

Bobby Witt Jr. is terrific but this is about as cheap as you will find on an Under 1.5 hits. He's batting .308 on the year and is 0-for-5 career off Sox starter Davis Martin. Witt has slowed down a bit this month at .250.

Pick Made: Thu 3:02 pm UTC on BetMGM
May 08 2025, 5:35 pm UTC
League
Texas
0
@ Boston
5
Analysis:

Getting 5.5 is an outlier for the first five for this matchup -- most of our books have 5 and one 4.5 -- so we'll do this instead of Red Sox ML, which I was first looking at. No Corey Seager or No. 1 catcher Jonah Heim for the Rangers. Pitcher Jack Leiter held Boston to one run over five on March 28 in a victory in Arlington. Boston's Brayan Bello has a 1.54 ERA in two home starts. I will always look at a F5 number of 5.5 that isn't at Coors Field or weather-inflated (no major weather at Fenway).

Pick Made: Thu 2:58 pm UTC on FanDuel
May 08 2025, 5:10 pm UTC
League
Baltimore
2
@ Minnesota
5
+1603.5
95-49 in Last 144 MLB Picks
+337
44-25 in Last 69 MLB ML Picks
+1923.25
64-30 in Last 94 MIN ML Picks
Analysis:

I'm sorry if betting the Twins to beat the Orioles is boring/predictable, but cash money is not. It's embarrassing what Baltimore is throwing out there on a nightly basis pitching wise: After Maury (Cade) Povich and (Charlie) Morton Downey Jr. -- I'm showing my talk show age -- in the first two, both easy Twins wins, now it's Kramer on Thursday! OK, Kremer as in Dean (sadly not Cosmo). Who is 1-4 with an 8.17 ERA on the road. Newman apparently isn't available ...

Pick Made: Thu 2:23 am UTC on Caesars
May 08 2025, 1:30 am UTC
League
Denver
106
@ Oklahoma City
149
+2457.25
95-39 in Last 134 NBA Player Props Picks
Analysis:

The Nuggets got their shocking Game 1 win in OKC to steal home-court advantage with Nikola Jokic putting up a PRA of 70. But I tend to think the Nugs will be out of gas tonight and half-punt on the game if they get down big early in order to give Joker some rare rest ahead of Game 3 in Denver. As it is, our model has Jokic with a PRA of 46.9.

Pick Made: Wed 1:57 pm UTC on BetRivers
May 08 2025, 12:40 am UTC
League
Detroit
8
@ Colorado
6
+1603.5
95-49 in Last 144 MLB Picks
+337
44-25 in Last 69 MLB ML Picks
+1871.25
64-27 in Last 91 DET ML Picks
Analysis:

Have a minor worry about excellent Tigers rookie pitcher Jackson Jobe in Coors Field for the first time, but Detroit's entire bullpen is available having been off since Sunday. I'd like to see the 2025 Rockies vs. the 2024 White Sox in one of those electric football games with the metal men moving. It would be a scoreless tie between historically bad clubs. Colorado's rookie pitcher, Chase Dollander, has a 6.75 ERA in three home starts.

Pick Made: Wed 1:29 pm UTC on BetMGM
May 07 2025, 11:40 pm UTC
League
Baltimore
2
@ Minnesota
5
+1603.5
95-49 in Last 144 MLB Picks
+337
44-25 in Last 69 MLB ML Picks
+1923.25
64-30 in Last 94 MIN ML Picks
Analysis:

Minnesota pummeled a bad Baltimore starting pitcher on Tuesday and faces an even worse one today in Charlie Morton, who looks zombified at age 41 and at 0-6 with a 9.76 ERA. GM Mike Elias probably should be fired for how little he did to help the rotation in the offseason. The Birds are now 5-12 away and have lost three straight overall. The Twins have won three in a row.

Pick Made: Wed 12:11 pm UTC on BetRivers
May 07 2025, 11:00 pm UTC
League
Florida Panthers
3
@ Toronto Maple Leafs
4
+3680
140-67-8 in Last 215 NHL Sides Picks
+1851.5
90-49 in Last 139 NHL ML Picks
+352
14-11 in Last 25 FLA ML Picks
Analysis:

Leafs No. 1 goalie Anthony Stolarz had to leave Game 1 with a possible concussion, and he apparently will not play tonight as Joseph Woll is in the starter's crease at the morning skate. Woll is not bad, but he's a downgrade from Stolarz -- at least this season. Woll allowed three goals on 20 shots in relief in the opener as Florida nearly staged a big rally. The Panthers were without top blueliner Aaron Ekblad as he was serving the final game of his suspension and thus will be in tonight's lineup.

Pick Made: Wed 3:15 pm UTC on BetMGM
May 06 2025, 11:40 pm UTC
League
Baltimore
1
@ Minnesota
9
+1603.5
95-49 in Last 144 MLB Picks
+337
44-25 in Last 69 MLB ML Picks
+1923.25
64-30 in Last 94 MIN ML Picks
Analysis:

Let's see if taking Monday off from MLB cures the Bullpen Blues as I definitely have been getting hammered of late via blown late leads by home relievers. The Twins, who got us Sunday in Boston in rallying from down 3-1 pretty late, see the season debut tonight of arguably their most dangerous hitter in Royce Lewis. The former No. 1 overall pick usually rakes when healthy, he just can't stay healthy. Ace Pablo Lopez (2-2, 2.25 ERA) is on the hill. Baltimore is 5-11 away.

Pick Made: Tue 4:01 pm UTC on BetRivers
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