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Matt Severance

Severance Pays

Matt Severance is a well-connected writer and high-volume handicapper who has worked in the industry since 2005. After joining SportsLine, Matt quickly established himself as a top expert in multiple sports. Over the past three NBA seasons, Matt has returned $4,452 to $100 bettors. Over the past four MLB seasons, Matt is up $1,681. And over the past five college basketball seasons, Matt is up $1,008. He also has excelled in two straight NFL seasons, returning $2,010 to $100 players. Matt believes in buying points in football to get off a push number like 3 or 7. He understands that oddsmakers don't do as much homework on lower-tier FBS games, creating betting opportunities. And he says homefield advantage is underrated in some markets and overrated in others. For Matt Severance media inquiries, contact SportsLine@CBSInteractive.com.

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LAST 255 NBA PICKS
+3224.75
RECORD: 163-91-1
# 2 NBA EXPERT
+3224.75
163-91-1 IN LAST 255 NBA PICKS

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Matt's Picks (3 Live)

May 28 2025, 5:10 pm UTC
League
Boston
@ Milwaukee
Money LineSubscribers Only
Unit0.5
+1953
128-65 in Last 193 MLB Picks
+343.5
46-27 in Last 73 MLB ML Picks
+373
6-2 in Last 8 BOS ML Picks
Analysis:

The Red Sox are free-falling. ...

Pick Made: 2:42 pm UTC on BetMGM
May 29 2025, 12:05 am UTC
League
Toronto
@ Texas
Money LineSubscribers Only
Unit0.5
+1953
128-65 in Last 193 MLB Picks
+343.5
46-27 in Last 73 MLB ML Picks
+458.5
51-34 in Last 85 TEX ML Picks
Analysis:

Corey Seager will return tonight for the Rangers. ...

Pick Made: 12:04 pm UTC on Caesars
May 30 2025, 12:00 am UTC
League
Edmonton
@ Dallas
Money LineSubscribers Only
Unit0.5
+3742.5
158-84-8 in Last 250 NHL Picks
+2066.5
95-52 in Last 147 NHL ML Picks
+1350.5
34-12 in Last 46 EDM ML Picks
Analysis:

Edmonton's Zach Hyman is likely out for the playoffs. ...

Pick Made: 5:37 pm UTC on Caesars

Matt's Past Picks

May 28 2025, 1:40 am UTC
League
Miami
6
@ San Diego
8
+1953
128-65 in Last 193 MLB Picks
+343.5
46-27 in Last 73 MLB ML Picks
+472
26-15 in Last 41 MIA ML Picks
Analysis:

Planned to play the Padres last night until Luis Arraez was out of the lineup. He's back in there today. Have to hope for the good Stephen Kolek as he has had two really good starts and two not good. But boy that Miami lineup is bad on paper. Pitcher Max Meyer is 1-3 with a 5.16 ERA on the road. The Padres saw him in 2024 and hit Meyer around a bit.

Pick Made: Tue 10:56 pm UTC on FanDuel
May 28 2025, 12:05 am UTC
League
Toronto
0
@ Texas
2
+1953
128-65 in Last 193 MLB Picks
+343.5
46-27 in Last 73 MLB ML Picks
+458.5
51-34 in Last 85 TEX ML Picks
Analysis:

No one seems to be talking about the Rangers' Nathan Eovaldi as an AL Cy Young candidate -- he's priced +1200. Big Nate is 4-3 with a 1.60 ERA and MLB-leading 0.79 WHIP on the season. Over his past six outings, that ERA drops to 0.74 ERA with an opponents' batting average of just .176. It's possible Texas activates Corey Seager off the injured list ahead of the game. Jays pitcher Bowden Francis is 0-3 with a 4.43 ERA on the road. He hasn't won anywhere since April 18.

Pick Made: Tue 12:38 pm UTC on Caesars
May 28 2025, 12:00 am UTC
League
Dallas
1
@ Edmonton
4
+3742.5
158-84-8 in Last 250 NHL Picks
+2925.5
81-34-8 in Last 123 NHL ATS Picks
+1221.5
25-9-1 in Last 35 DAL ATS Picks
Analysis:

If we push, we push but all three games in the series have been decided by at least three goals -- and the Oilers have won four of their six playoff home games by at least two. Dallas netminder Jake Oettinger had a road GAA more than a goal higher during the RS and has had his issues in the postseason away as well. Stars top forward Roope Hintz is a game-time call after missing Game 3 -- when he "wasn't close" according to coach Peter DeBoer despite warming up.

Pick Made: Tue 12:44 pm UTC on BetRivers
May 28 2025, 12:00 am UTC
League
New York
121
@ Indiana
130
+3224.75
163-91-1 in Last 255 NBA Picks
+1148
44-23 in Last 67 NBA ML Picks
+1238
53-27 in Last 80 NY ML Picks
Analysis:

Did the Mitchell Robinson starting lineup change make that much of a difference for the Knicks? For three quarters, it didn't as Indiana was the vastly superior team until going completely cold and getting dominated in the fourth. Indiana also lost Game 3 of the last two rounds only to crush the opponent in Game 4. The Pacers haven't lost back-to-back games overall since March 8 & 10. They won't be limited to five made 3-pointers again.

Pick Made: Tue 1:19 pm UTC on BetMGM
May 26 2025, 8:10 pm UTC
League
Cincinnati
7
@ Kansas City
4
+625
22-7 in Last 29 MLB Game Props Picks
Analysis:

Terrible hitting conditions in Kansas City if the game is played (very iffy on that) with a 60% chance of rain, winds blowing in about 14 mph and temps in the low 60s. So basically what I imagine London is like most of the time. Reds pitcher Nick Martinez has five straight quality starts, while KC's Michael Lorenzen has a 0.95 home ERA.

Pick Made: Mon 7:00 pm UTC on FanDuel
May 26 2025, 7:05 pm UTC
League
St. Louis
2
@ Baltimore
5
+625
22-7 in Last 29 MLB Game Props Picks
Analysis:

We like Under 5.5s. It worked yesterday on the Orioles starting a bad starting pitcher in Boston in Dean Kremer. They are starting another one today in Charlie Morton (0-7, 7.78) back home, so I certainly wouldn't be shocked with a loss here. But Morton has been much, much better of late -- albeit as a middle reliever. Not real hot in Baltimore and any slight winds apparently blowing in. The Cards' Erick Fedde has a 2.43 road ERA and hasn't allowed a run over his past two away starts totaling 14.2 innings.

Pick Made: Mon 1:05 pm UTC on BetRivers
May 26 2025, 5:10 pm UTC
League
San Francisco
1
@ Detroit
3
+1953
128-65 in Last 193 MLB Picks
+1285
33-10 in Last 43 MLB ATS Picks
+1085
44-25-1 in Last 70 DET ATS Picks
Analysis:

Can't say I love Tigers starting pitcher Keider Montero (1-1. 5.19 ERA), but the entire bullpen is available behind him today after ace Tarik Skubal threw a complete game on Sunday. The Giants are sitting arguably their hottest hitter in Heliot Ramos. Opener Hayden Birdsong has been pretty good overall with a 1.91 ERA but that number is 3.68 on the road and some of his overall metrics are shaky. SF used its top three relievers each for an inning yesterday. I always like home teams but especially in front of huge holiday crowds. And we don't even need a win.

Pick Made: Mon 2:38 pm UTC on FanDuel
May 26 2025, 12:00 am UTC
League
New York
106
@ Indiana
100
+2195.75
96-43 in Last 139 NBA Player Props Picks
Analysis:

(Derrick Rose and Luol Deng wrecker) Tom Thibodeau might start Mitchell Robinson tonight for the first time because he has been easily the best defender/rebounder in the series and Indiana is basically terrorizing Karl-Anthony Towns when he's on defense. Robinson played 29 minutes in Game 2, by far his most in these playoffs and second-most all season. He pulled down nine boards. Rebounding is the Pacers' biggest weakness. Should be a fun day in Indy with the 500 (I used to care about that race and know most of the drivers, but now I probably couldn't name more than five) and this.

Pick Made: May 25, 3:56 pm UTC on BetRivers
May 25 2025, 7:00 pm UTC
League
Dallas
1
@ Edmonton
6
+3742.5
158-84-8 in Last 250 NHL Picks
+2066.5
95-52 in Last 147 NHL ML Picks
+1350.5
34-12 in Last 46 EDM ML Picks
Analysis:

Will go ahead and play this now because it will only go up if Dallas star center Roope Hintz is out. He left the Game 2 loss injured and is in major question for Sunday (having watched him leave the ice, I doubt he goes but hockey players are the toughest around so we shall see). I like Edmonton anyways, but especially so if he sits. Roope had 67 points and a plus-18 rating during the RS and has 11 in the playoffs while being one of the team's top guys in the faceoff circle: 7-for-14 in Game 2 before leaving. Yes, I enjoy saying Roope: "Roope, I am your father!"

Pick Made: May 24, 5:08 pm UTC on BetRivers
May 25 2025, 5:35 pm UTC
League
San Francisco
3
@ Washington
2
+1953
128-65 in Last 193 MLB Picks
+343.5
46-27 in Last 73 MLB ML Picks
+1002
39-17 in Last 56 WAS ML Picks
Analysis:

San Francisco's Robbie Ray has allowed more than three earned just once all season as he looks healthy and back in his Cy Young form from 2021 while with Toronto. Washington's Michael Soroka has a 7.20 ERA at home. The Nats lineup looks pretty soft after the top four guys today.

Pick Made: May 25, 3:36 pm UTC on BetRivers
May 25 2025, 5:35 pm UTC
League
Baltimore
5
@ Boston
1
+625
22-7 in Last 29 MLB Game Props Picks
Analysis:

Be aware that the Sunday before Memorial Day might be the most backward day of the MLB season annually. Sundays are weird enough by themselves and then you add the Monday holiday. I can't say this is my favorite Under 5.5 play of the season because of Baltimore's Dean Kremer (5.50 ERA), but Boston's Walker Buehler ("Buehler?) has a 3.00 ERA at Fenway and it's not warm at all up there (must be nice) and winds don't appear to be a factor. I thought about Red Sox ML cheaper but that lineup concerns me today without Alex Bregman and a few others. Rookie catcher Carlos Narvaez is batting cleanup today -- prior to this series, he hadn’t hit higher than seventh.

Pick Made: May 25, 3:35 pm UTC on FanDuel
May 25 2025, 2:07 am UTC
League
Miami
6
@ L.A. Angels
2
+1953
128-65 in Last 193 MLB Picks
+343.5
46-27 in Last 73 MLB ML Picks
+472
26-15 in Last 41 MIA ML Picks
Analysis:

I really haven't been paying attention to the Angels ... well since Shohei left. Just a terribly run organization. Yet somehow the Halos have won an MLB-best eight straight games to get to .500 for the first time in a month. And only one of those was at home: Last night vs. the Marlins. Taylor Ward is having really solid season for LAA, which means they should trade him when his value is highest but of course they won't just like they didn't Ohtani. Starting pitcher Jose Soriano has a 2.25 ERA this month and hasn't allowed a homer in four starts. The Marlins' Cal Quantrill has a 7.36 road ERA. The Angels have homered in 13 consecutive games, the longest active MLB streak.

Pick Made: May 24, 3:25 pm UTC on FanDuel
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