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Severance Pays
Matt Severance is a well-connected writer and high-volume handicapper who has worked in the industry since 2005. After joining SportsLine, Matt quickly established himself as a top expert in multiple sports. Over the past three NBA seasons, Matt has returned $4,452 to $100 bettors. Over the past four MLB seasons, Matt is up $1,681. And over the past five college basketball seasons, Matt is up $1,008. He also has excelled in two straight NFL seasons, returning $2,010 to $100 players. Matt believes in buying points in football to get off a push number like 3 or 7. He understands that oddsmakers don't do as much homework on lower-tier FBS games, creating betting opportunities. And he says homefield advantage is underrated in some markets and overrated in others. For Matt Severance media inquiries, contact SportsLine@CBSInteractive.com.
@jordanpaytonsn1Edmonton's Zach Hyman is likely out for the playoffs. ...
Planned to play the Padres last night until Luis Arraez was out of the lineup. He's back in there today. Have to hope for the good Stephen Kolek as he has had two really good starts and two not good. But boy that Miami lineup is bad on paper. Pitcher Max Meyer is 1-3 with a 5.16 ERA on the road. The Padres saw him in 2024 and hit Meyer around a bit.
No one seems to be talking about the Rangers' Nathan Eovaldi as an AL Cy Young candidate -- he's priced +1200. Big Nate is 4-3 with a 1.60 ERA and MLB-leading 0.79 WHIP on the season. Over his past six outings, that ERA drops to 0.74 ERA with an opponents' batting average of just .176. It's possible Texas activates Corey Seager off the injured list ahead of the game. Jays pitcher Bowden Francis is 0-3 with a 4.43 ERA on the road. He hasn't won anywhere since April 18.
If we push, we push but all three games in the series have been decided by at least three goals -- and the Oilers have won four of their six playoff home games by at least two. Dallas netminder Jake Oettinger had a road GAA more than a goal higher during the RS and has had his issues in the postseason away as well. Stars top forward Roope Hintz is a game-time call after missing Game 3 -- when he "wasn't close" according to coach Peter DeBoer despite warming up.
Did the Mitchell Robinson starting lineup change make that much of a difference for the Knicks? For three quarters, it didn't as Indiana was the vastly superior team until going completely cold and getting dominated in the fourth. Indiana also lost Game 3 of the last two rounds only to crush the opponent in Game 4. The Pacers haven't lost back-to-back games overall since March 8 & 10. They won't be limited to five made 3-pointers again.
Terrible hitting conditions in Kansas City if the game is played (very iffy on that) with a 60% chance of rain, winds blowing in about 14 mph and temps in the low 60s. So basically what I imagine London is like most of the time. Reds pitcher Nick Martinez has five straight quality starts, while KC's Michael Lorenzen has a 0.95 home ERA.
We like Under 5.5s. It worked yesterday on the Orioles starting a bad starting pitcher in Boston in Dean Kremer. They are starting another one today in Charlie Morton (0-7, 7.78) back home, so I certainly wouldn't be shocked with a loss here. But Morton has been much, much better of late -- albeit as a middle reliever. Not real hot in Baltimore and any slight winds apparently blowing in. The Cards' Erick Fedde has a 2.43 road ERA and hasn't allowed a run over his past two away starts totaling 14.2 innings.
Can't say I love Tigers starting pitcher Keider Montero (1-1. 5.19 ERA), but the entire bullpen is available behind him today after ace Tarik Skubal threw a complete game on Sunday. The Giants are sitting arguably their hottest hitter in Heliot Ramos. Opener Hayden Birdsong has been pretty good overall with a 1.91 ERA but that number is 3.68 on the road and some of his overall metrics are shaky. SF used its top three relievers each for an inning yesterday. I always like home teams but especially in front of huge holiday crowds. And we don't even need a win.
(Derrick Rose and Luol Deng wrecker) Tom Thibodeau might start Mitchell Robinson tonight for the first time because he has been easily the best defender/rebounder in the series and Indiana is basically terrorizing Karl-Anthony Towns when he's on defense. Robinson played 29 minutes in Game 2, by far his most in these playoffs and second-most all season. He pulled down nine boards. Rebounding is the Pacers' biggest weakness. Should be a fun day in Indy with the 500 (I used to care about that race and know most of the drivers, but now I probably couldn't name more than five) and this.
Will go ahead and play this now because it will only go up if Dallas star center Roope Hintz is out. He left the Game 2 loss injured and is in major question for Sunday (having watched him leave the ice, I doubt he goes but hockey players are the toughest around so we shall see). I like Edmonton anyways, but especially so if he sits. Roope had 67 points and a plus-18 rating during the RS and has 11 in the playoffs while being one of the team's top guys in the faceoff circle: 7-for-14 in Game 2 before leaving. Yes, I enjoy saying Roope: "Roope, I am your father!"
San Francisco's Robbie Ray has allowed more than three earned just once all season as he looks healthy and back in his Cy Young form from 2021 while with Toronto. Washington's Michael Soroka has a 7.20 ERA at home. The Nats lineup looks pretty soft after the top four guys today.
Be aware that the Sunday before Memorial Day might be the most backward day of the MLB season annually. Sundays are weird enough by themselves and then you add the Monday holiday. I can't say this is my favorite Under 5.5 play of the season because of Baltimore's Dean Kremer (5.50 ERA), but Boston's Walker Buehler ("Buehler?) has a 3.00 ERA at Fenway and it's not warm at all up there (must be nice) and winds don't appear to be a factor. I thought about Red Sox ML cheaper but that lineup concerns me today without Alex Bregman and a few others. Rookie catcher Carlos Narvaez is batting cleanup today -- prior to this series, he hadn’t hit higher than seventh.
I really haven't been paying attention to the Angels ... well since Shohei left. Just a terribly run organization. Yet somehow the Halos have won an MLB-best eight straight games to get to .500 for the first time in a month. And only one of those was at home: Last night vs. the Marlins. Taylor Ward is having really solid season for LAA, which means they should trade him when his value is highest but of course they won't just like they didn't Ohtani. Starting pitcher Jose Soriano has a 2.25 ERA this month and hasn't allowed a homer in four starts. The Marlins' Cal Quantrill has a 7.36 road ERA. The Angels have homered in 13 consecutive games, the longest active MLB streak.