Matt's Picks (3 Live)
Matt's Past Picks
If you are looking for me to do an in-depth thing on Marist, well keep looking. I know where it is so feel already ahead of the game. A win would give Marist its best start after 10 games (8-2) since the 2006-07 season.
Funny how betting works. I studied my rear off all college football regular season and up a little but nothing to brag about. So when bowls come around I kinda consider that exempt. And I go with my gut. And it's working. Which means two things: I now can justify growing said gut to the wifey, and I probably have no shot here now angering Jobu and that Bad Monkey lady, but NDSU getting points at home is rare. And it beat SDSU earlier this season. So I'm not sure I get this line really. I believe it should be a pick'em. This might be the best college football game of the day in reality as all the CFP games look rather lopsided.
I almost posted a poll in the SportsLine Discord channel yesterday asking if anyone thought we would see 6.5. But I didn't because I thought it unlikely. So consider me surprised here. And happy. IU has been a great story and it's cool as heck the playoff forced Notre Dame to face its in-state rival. But go look at the Hoosiers' schedule. Shockingly weak as they really beat no one. Their one good opponent, Ohio State, won by more than three TDs. ND has been arguably the nation's best team since about mid-September.
Probably will come back and play Notre Dame ATS, but the first-ever outdoor cold-weather College Football Playoff game means I have to play Under on principle. Two of the top five scoring defenses in the nation, and I expect a fairly run-heavy game plan on both sides in part because it will be below freezing in South Bend with a bit of wind and possible snow showers on Friday night. Indiana ranks No. 1 against the run.
Clearly the oddsmakers are thinking what I am: Tough spot for the Thunder. It's their third game in four nights against a terrific opponent. I expected maybe a bit of a letdown last night in Orlando off the NBA Cup loss Tuesday in Vegas. OKC did appear to hit a wall in the second half but managed to beat the Magic, who are a shell right now due to injuries. The Heat are healthy and rested. Feels like a Jimmy Butler Trade Showcase Game.
Two very good teams who might win their respective conferences and get to the Big Dance -- Yale was picked second in the Ivy League and Akron second in the MAC. KenPom ranks the Bulldogs 30 spots better and seniors John Poulakidas and Bez Mbeng were named to the 2024-25 Lou Henson Early Season Watch List. Why these teams thought it would be fun to meet thousands of miles away in El Paso, Texas, is beyond me. Perhaps El Paso is lovely for the holidays, dunno. Yale should be mega-prepared for the Zips considering it hasn't played since Dec. 7. Akron just played Sunday and got throttled at another neutral site by Milwaukee. Including that, the Zips are 0-3 away from home.
Front end of a B2B for Toronto and with No. 1 goalie Anthony Stolarz out weeks, that means Matt Murray is expected in net on Friday for the former Stanley Cup champion's first NHL game since April 2023. He spent the entire 2023-24 season in the AHL but basically was injured the whole time. Murray hasn't been very good since his final season with the Pens in 2019-20. So while the Leafs clearly have the better roster, I'm largely fading Murray even though Buffalo has lost 11 in a row. The Sabres roster is WAY too talented for that. Star blueliner and captain Rasmus Dahlin is expected to return after missing the past seven. He's a big reason why Buffalo has flatlined.
Thought about this Thursday prop in two ways: First, that KAT is going to go nuts facing his former Timberwolves team for the first time since the summer blockbuster trade. And my first inclination was to go over KAT's point total. But the more I thought about it and secondly, I think he might be a little too amped up and Minnesota is a stellar defensive team having allowed triple-digit points just once in the past seven. DPOY Rudy Gobert will certainly be geared up for this and should keep KAT from doing too much in the post. Our model has Towns finishing with 31.4 PR and NumberFire is about the same. I mean, 25/10 and we win pretty easily.
Josh Hart obviously isn't the first- or second- or maybe even third best player on the Knicks but in some ways he might be the most important for all that he does. Hart is out for personal reasons and that was the push I needed to back the Wolves in the Karl-Anthony Towns Twin Cities return game.
Boston is capable of beating any club anytime -- guess you could say that about any team -- but feels like a tough spot at the end of a five-game trip through Canada/Seattle. Edmonton burned us in a Stanley Cup Finals rematch against Florida on Monday so should be sufficiently perturbed off blowing a two-goal lead and having a season-high five-game winning streak snapped. It marked the Oilers' first regulation loss when scoring five or more goals since the beginning of the 2023-24 season (26-1-1). They are 18-3-1 this season when giving up three or fewer goals, and Boston has been held to three or fewer twice so far on this trip.
Pardon me for any grammatical errors today, I'm a little distracted with the first Superman trailer. Yep, I'm 10 years old when it comes to that (and Snoopy). OVC opener for both with KenPom ranking Southern Indiana about 50 spots better. USI has two of the OVC's top 10 scorers in Jayland Randall and Stephen Olowoniyi. The Screaming Eagles are outscoring teams by an average of 88.6-67.4 at home this season and outshooting them by better than 10% overall.
The Bolts' Kimani Vidal seems to be gaining the confidence of Jim Harbaugh as Vidal played a season-high 32 snaps on Sunday. Vidal also was the clear option as a receiver out of the backfield running 16 routes, while Gus Edwards and Hassan Haskins combined for three routes. The Broncos allow the fourth most receptions to running backs, averaging 5.29 per game. I'd rather do yards, though, since he obviously can top this on one catch.