Brandt's Past Picks
Barcelona have been spectacular in recent weeks, recording a clean sheet in four of their last five matches across all competitions. The home side has also been lethal in the attacking third, scoring eight goals in their last two home fixtures. I expect Barcelona to come out looking to extend their lead early in this match, which would lead to Benfica pressing and creating space behind their defenders for quality players like Robert Lewandowski and Raphina to exploit in the second half.
Barcelona are unbeaten in their last 15 matches across all competitions, which includes a thrilling 5-4 victory on the road against Benfica on Jan. 21. Barcelona enters Wednesday’s match having scored eight goals over their last two games and they’ve kept a clean sheet in five of their past seven fixtures overall. Hansi Flick’s men will take on a Benfica side capable of causing frustration, but I think the Spanish giants have too much quality for the home side to contend with. Look for Barcelona to make a statement with a win over Benfica in the first leg.
Inter Milan have had the best defensive record in the Champions League thus far this season, conceding just once in eight matches. Under 2.5 goals have also been scored in six of Inter’s eight matches in this competition, including all four away fixtures. Meanwhile, Feyenoord have scored more than one goal just once in their last five matches across all competitions, and I’m expecting we'll see another cagey affair on Wednesday.
Arsenal limp into Tuesday’s contest winless in three of their last four matches across all competitions. The Gunners have been unable to secure positive results because of an attack that has failed to create many scoring opportunities. Arsenal are without two of their best attacking players in Bukayo Saka and Kai Havertz, which has led to the Gunners being held scoreless in three of their past four fixtures. However, Mikel Arteta’s men boast a backline capable of frustrating the opposition. Arsenal have conceded more than one goal just once in their last eight matches across all competitions. With the second leg set to be played at the Emirates, I expect a defensive approach from Arteta's men on the road.
Borussia Dortmund cruised to a 3-0 victory on the road in the first leg, which means Sporting Lisbon will have to press early and often if they want to have any shot at advancing to the next round. Borussia Dortmund’s shutout victory was the first clean sheet they recorded since a 3-0 win over Dinamo Zagreb on Nov. 27. These two teams combined for 13 shots on target in the first leg, and I expect plenty of scoring opportunities to come along for both teams again. Plus, Over 2.5 goals has hit in six of Dortmund’s past seven games overall, a trend I’m backing again on Wednesday.
I’m going back to the well with this one. Feyenoord’s backline has been leaky thus far in the Champions League, conceding 21 goals through eight matches, the most of any team still in this competition. Over 2.5 goals have also been scored in five of AC Milan’s past six appearances in the Champions League. With the likes of Christian Pulisic, Rafael Leao, and newly-acquired Joao Felix leading AC Milan’s attack, I think this match gives us three goals minimum.
Club Brugge have failed to score more than one goal in each of their last six games across all competitions and they’ve been tough to break down at home. Brugge have kept a clean sheet in two of their past three home fixtures in the Champions League, and I’m expecting we’ll see another low-scoring affair when they take on Atalanta in the first leg. The Italian side can certainly score goals in bunches, but with a home match on the horizon next week, I think they’ll pick and choose when to go forward and create scoring opportunities. Atalanta have also kept a clean sheet five times in eight appearances in the Champions League this season.
Over 2.5 goals have been scored in seven of Borussia Dortmund’s eight matches in the Champions League and BTTS has hit in Sporting CP’s last five fixtures in this competition, a perfect recipe for three or more goals on Tuesday. Sporting will be pressing forward knowing they have a tough reverse fixture at Signal Iduna Park on the horizon and I think they can find success against a Dortmund side that has conceded two or more goals in six of their last eight matches across all competitions.
Feyenoord tends to play in exciting fixtures in the Champions League. They enter Wednesday’s match against Lille having scored 17 goals, tied for the fourth-most in the competition. Feyenoord have also conceded 15 times, the most of any team ranked inside the top 25 in the UCL standings. Plus, both teams have scored in each of Lille’s past five games in this competition, a trend I expect to continue on Wednesday. Either side could make the top eight with a win but need help from elsewhere, so I think both squads will be pressing forward looking for goals.
Inter Milan has conceded just one goal in the Champions League this season, which came in a 1-0 defeat on the road against Bayer Leverkusen. The Italian side constantly frustrates opposing attacks and can secure a place in the top eight with a win or draw at home against Monaco. Inter also hasn’t been extremely efficient in the final third in this competition, scoring only eight goals through seven games. I expect Simone Inzaghi’s men to control the pace of play, resulting in another low-scoring affair for Inter Milan.
Atletico Madrid will qualify for the top eight with a win against RB Salzburg, a team that has conceded 23 goals in this competition, the second-most in the UCL. Atletico is loaded with talent capable of pouncing on RB Salzburg’s mistakes, including striker Julian Alvarez, who netted a brace in Atletico’s 2-1 victory over Bayer Leverkusen on Matchday 7. With Atletico needing all three points to guarantee a spot in the top eight, I expect Diego Simeone’s side will come out with an attacking mindset.
Brest have been the surprise of the Champions League thus far, winning four of their first six matches, while Shakhtar Donetsk have disappointed by posting just one win, one draw, and four losses. Both teams have scored in Shakhtar's last three UCL fixtures and Brest have conceded in five of their last six matches across all competitions. Over 2.5 goals have also been scored in each of Brest’s three away fixtures in this competition, a trend I expect to continue on Wednesday.
Both of these teams can be clinical in the attacking third, which should make for an exciting match. Borussia Dortmund has scored two or more goals in four of their last six matches across all competitions, while Bologna has scored 11 times in their past five fixtures. Bologna has also conceded eight times during that stretch and Over 2.5 goals has hit in five of Dortmund’s six games in UCL play.
I was expecting this line to be 3.5, so I’ll gladly pay a little juice at this number. Club Brugge is coming off a 7-0 victory against STVV in the Belgian Pro League and they’ve scored two or more goals in four of their past six games across all competitions. Celtic can also score in bunches, scoring two or more goals in six consecutive games in all competitions. Celtic has scored eight goals in their first two UCL games at Celtic Park, so give me Over 2.5 at -145.
Bologna have yet to score in this completion and now they’ll take on a Lille side that has beaten the likes of Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid already in UCL play. Lille are unbeaten in their 11 matches across all competitions, while Bologna have won just once in their last eight fixtures at home. The safer play here is Lille +0.5 or Lille draw no bet, but the value we’re getting at +225 is too good to pass up in my opinion.