Larry's Past Picks
Coming off a horrific performance, look for Tyrese Haliburton to bounce back, especially as a distributor. He averaged 11 assists per game post-All Star Break. Haliburton cleared this prop total in his first six playoff games this season before falling short in the last two. I like that we have a healthy total of 230.5.
Aaron Gordon has elevated his game in the playoffs, especially at home. He has cleared this prop total in all but one home playoff game. With Denver playing a small rotation and Nikola Jokic attracting most of the attention, Gordon is in a great spot to continue his all-around production.
Anthony Edwards missed time with an ankle injury in Game 2, but still finished with nine rebounds and five assists. That marked the sixth time in seven playoff games he has cleared this 12.5 prop total. WIth a more competitive game expected in Golden State, I look for Edwards to play 40 minutes and go Over on combined rebounds and assists.
Aaron Gordon grabbed 14 rebounds in Game 1 -- seven offensive -- but followed that up with only five rebounds in Game 2. Interestingly, all five came on the offensive glass. Perhaps that's because the Thunder rarely missed. Gordon played 27 minutes in the blowout loss. Assuming this game is more competitive, Gordon should play close to 40 minutes and be extremely active as a rebounder.
The Twins have won five straight, but I'll take the 24-14 road team against Chris Paddack. Minnesota has lost six of his seven starts, and his expected ERA of 5.01 isn't much better than his actual 5.57 ERA. He has only struck out four total batters in his last two starts covering 10 innings. The Giants were off Thursday so their bullpen is rested behind Jordan Hicks.
Patrick Corbin has been a pleasant surprise, but he's got an expected ERA of 4.69. He's facing a Tigers lineup that owns an .847 OPS over the last 15 days. Look for Tarik Skubal to dominate as usual and for the Tigers to lead after five innings.
The Blue Jays have lost four straight overall and are 5-12 on the road. But they've got a nice pitching edge Thursday with Chris Bassitt (2.95 ERA) opposing Jose Soriano. Soriano has allowed a 46.3 percent hard-hit rate and the Angels have lost his last four starts, though he did pitch well last time out. Look for Toronto to salvage the series finale.
Anthony Edwards missed his first 10 shots in Game 1, but he did finish with 14 rebounds and two assists. That was the fifth time in six playoff games in which Edwards cleared this 12.5 prop total. His Timberwolves' teammates won't shoot as poorly in Game 2, which should lead to more assists. And Edwards should remain very aggressive throughout, attacking the glass, after he got called out by coach Chris Finch for not bringing the proper energy and leadership.
The Warriors give up the fourth-most rebounds to opposing centers (16.2 per game). Rudy Gobert grabbed 11 rebounds in 26 minutes in Game 1 after pulling down 24 rebounds in the clinching win over the Lakers. Steph Curry's absence means Golden State will play a bigger lineup; Gobert is less likely to be played off the floor. In addition, look for Gobert to get held less after Chris Finch complained officials let Gobert get "physically beaten on" in Game 1.
This line is rising for good reason. The Phillies have scored 31 runs in their past four games, and over the last week they own an .883 OPS. Rays starter Ryan Pepiot has regressed this season, allowing career-highs in hard-hit rate (41.9 percent) and barrel rate (10.3 percent). Phillies lefty Jesus Luzardo should have success against a Tampa Bay lineup that ranks second-to-last in OPS against southpaws (.536).
Jalen Williams arguably cost the Thunder Game 1, as he shot 5 of 20. That included 2 of 9 from deep. I like Williams to bounce back overall and also to make at least two 3-pointers against the Nuggets' deep drop defense. Williams shot 42.4 percent on 3-pointers post-All Star Break, and he has cleared this prop total in four straight playoff games after only playing 26 minutes in the Game 1 massacre of Memphis. Denver gives up the fourth-most made 3-pointers to the small forward position.
The Phillies own the second-best OPS over the past seven days (.879) and have scored 24 runs in the past three games. The Rays have dropped five of seven, including two shutout losses, and will have their hands full facing lefty Cristopher Sanchez. He owns a 0.75 ERA in two career starts against Tampa. Current Rays have one extra-base hit in 24 at-bats against Sanchez. This is a relatively cheap price to back Philly as it seeks its eighth win in 10 games.
Mikal Bridges is so critical defensively, he played 51 of 53 possible minutes in Game 1. Bridges' shot wasn't falling as he went 3 of 13 for eight points. However, Bridges averaged 17.6 points this season and 16.2 points in the first-round series against Detroit. I like him to shoot better in Game 2 and get the minutes he needs to score at least 14.
Naz Reid was mostly an afterthought in Game 5 against the Lakers, as Rudy Gobert dominated. I'm expecting Reid to be pivotal in this series, though. The undersized Warriors will force Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle to give up the ball, and other Wolves will have to make catch-and-shoot 3s. That fits Reid's game perfectly. He cleared this prop total in all four regular-season matchups with Golden State, and also went Over this number in three of five first-round playoff games. Coming off an unusually quiet performance, look for Reid to show up big in Game 1.
Over the last 15 days, the Rays rank 27th in OPS (.612). They should struggle against Zack Wheeler, who has fanned 29 over his last three starts covering 19.2 innings. The Phillies, especially Bryce Harper, have underperformed thus far, but I like their chances against right-hander Drew Rasmussen. He has pitched worse than his 2.64 ERA indicates and has given up seven earned runs in his last two starts covering 10 innings. Look for the Rays to fall to 9-14 at their temporary home, George M. Steinbrenner Field.