Larry's Picks (8 Live)
Larry's Past Picks
Derrick Henry only rushed 13 times when the Ravens lost at Pittsburgh, 18-16. I'm expecting a different game script, fewer turnovers by Baltimore, and a big workload for Henry on Saturday against a tired Steelers defense. He should be fresh after only carrying 14 times against the Giants. FanDuel has the best number at the time of posting.
Patrick Mahomes is on track to start and Hollywood Brown is set to return, but it's fair to wonder how effective this offense will be against an elite Houston defense. The Texans rank third in EPA per play allowed, thanks to a fierce pass rush and a secondary led by reigning AFC Defensive Player of the Week in CB Derek Stingley Jr. Surprisingly, K.C. has allowed 5.0 yards per carry over the past three games, so perhaps Joe Mixon can have some success and take some pressure off of C.J. Stroud.
The Broncos don't trust rookie running back Audric Estime in pass protection; he has four targets this season. With Jaleel McLaughlin (quad) out Thursday, Javonte Williams in for a sizable snap share. Against a Chargers' defense that plays zone coverage 77.7 percent of the time (2nd-highest rate), look for Bo Nix to target Williams multiple times. LA allows the third-most targets (6.79 per game) to opposing running backs. Williams ranks second on the Broncos with 40 catches.
The Chargers have scored exactly 17 points in three straight, and I don't see them getting to 23 against the league's No. 1 defense in EPA per play allowed. Remember, when the Chargers won 23-16 in Denver, Broncos shutdown corner Patrick Surtain left the game on the first defensive play with a concussion. Justin Herbert is playing on an injured ankle, he's trying out a new brace Thursday, and he doesn't have a strong run game to lean on anymore. Since JK Dobbins' injury, LA is averaging an NFL-high 8.4 yards to go on third down. Look for a 20-17 type of game and go Under on the Chargers' win total.
This is a bad matchup for turnover-prone Butler, as Marquette forces 16 turnovers per game. The Bulldogs enter on a three-game skid, including losing a tune-up game to North Dakota State in which they were laying 13.5 points. They haven't covered any of their last four games, failing to meet oddsmakers' expectations by a combined 43 points.
The Bucks give up the second-most rebounds to opposing point guards (6.86 per game). In NBA Cup games, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 24.8 potential assists and rebounds. He has cleared this prop total in five straight NBA Cup games and in the last four, he has registered at least 13 rebounds plus assists.
Michael Mayer was an early second-round pick in 2023 out of Notre Dame, so he has a strong pedigree. He missed several weeks this season due to personal issues. But now he's back and coming off his best game of the season. When the Raiders drafted Brock Bowers, they envisioned playing a lot of two tight-end sets. And last week, they ran 12 personnel two-thirds of the time. Mayer set season highs in snaps and routes run and finished with seven catches for 68 yards. Look for Mayer to notch at least 20 receiving yards Monday.