Larry's Picks (1 Live)
The Angels have lost five straight, scoring five runs in that span. ...
Larry's Past Picks
With the Nationals' shaky bullpen, I bet them in the first five innings behind MacKenzie Gore. The lefty has fanned 18 over his last two starts, and he dominated the Mariners (7 innings, 4 hits, 1 run, 8 Ks) when he faced them last season. Gore is in much better form than Seattle starter Emerson Hancock, who is allowing a .507 expected slugging percentage. He has fanned only 28 in 39.1 innings, so I like the Nats' chances to put balls in play and lead after five.
Cristopher Sanchez has a 30 percent strikeout rate and faces a Braves' lineup that's been shaky versus left-handed pitching. Look for Sanchez to clear this prop total for the fourth straight time.
Anthony Edwards was criticized for not shooting enough in Game 4, when he finished with just 16 points, six assists and four rebounds. Edwards' season likely will end Wednesday, and I don't think the superstar will go out quietly. He's had two monster games in this series already. Look for Edwards to play at least 40 minutes and clear this prop total.
The Rockies own a .601 OPS against left-handed pitching as they prepare to face Cubs starter Matthew Boyd. He's 4-0 with a 3.00 ERA at home. Chicago hasn't scored much in this series but should break out against Tanner Gordon, who is making his first road start this season. Gordon was hit hard in five of his six road appearances last season.
The Padres rallied to win 8-6 on Tuesday, and I like them to carry over that momentum against struggling Sandy Alcantara. The Marlins' former ace owns a 12.64 ERA on the road and has allowed an overall 48 percent hard-hit rate this season. Alcantara has allowed four or more earned runs in five straight starts. San Diego counters with lefty Kyle Hart, who just got recalled from AAA. However, he is 2-0 with a 1.64 ERA at Petco Park. The Marlins are worse against left-handed pitching (.653 OPS) than against right-handers (.715 OPS).
The Dodgers rank second in OPS in day games, compared to the Guardians' 23rd ranking. I especially like Shohei Ohtani's matchup against Cleveland opener Kolby Allard; Ohtani has two homers and a triple in 13 at-bats versus Allard. Look for Clayton Kershaw to build off his last performance against the Mets and for LA to lead through five innings.
The Pirates are 6-20 on the road after Monday's shutout loss to Arizona. I bet the Diamondbacks to keep pouring it on behind Corbin Burnes, who has allowed three runs over his last 23 innings. It is the second major-league start for Pittsburgh right-hander Mike Burrows. The Diamondbacks own an MLB-best .808 OPS against right-handed pitching, while the Pirates rank 29th at .640. Look for Burrows, who served up two homers to the Brewers last time out, to struggle Tuesday night.
Reserve guard T.J. McConnell shot 55.3 percent at home in the regular season, compared to 49.4 percent on the road. In the playoffs, he's averaging 12 points and five assists through six home games. Back McConnell to clear this prop total for the fourth straight time in this series.
Former Royal Brady Singer is not in good form as he returns to Kansas City, having posted a 7.85 ERA over his last four starts. For the season, Singer owns a 6.66 road ERA with 34 hits allowed in 24.1 innings. He's allowing a career-high barrel rate of 11.8 percent. K.C. is going with a bullpen game led by Daniel Lynch (1.57 ERA). I bet the Royals, who are 17-10 at home, to bounce back from Monday's loss.
The Padres have lost seven of nine and now have to face hard-throwing Marlins starter Ryan Weathers, who has looked just as good as expected in his first two starts since returning from a forearm strain. And both starts came against the high-scoring Cubs. Miami should have success against San Diego starter Randy Vasquez. His expected ERA of 5.57 is much higher than his actual ERA of 3.49. Take the Marlins at even money in the first five innings.
The Dodgers lost their final two games in New York, scoring just three runs against Mets' pitching. But I love them to bounce back versus Cleveland starter Gavin Williams. He has faced them twice in his career (2024, 2023) and got shellacked each time. Dodgers ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto is second on the Cy Young odds board, sports a 0.91 WHIP, and is coming off seven shutout innings vs. Arizona.
Will Warren is in terrific form for the Yankees, having allowed three earned runs over his last three starts. Rockies starter Antonio Senzatela has given up at least four earned runs in five straight starts. Colorado shocked the Yankees 3-2 on Friday, and New York bounced back Saturday with a 13-1 win. Look for the Yanks to jump on top and lead by two through five innings.
The first two games of this series totaled 19 and 10 runs, and I bet the finale to go Over as well. Reds starter Nick Lodolo is facing the top offense in baseball and has served up five homers in just 21.1 innings at Great American Ball Park. Cubs starter Ben Brown has been lit up in two of his past five starts and has allowed a 45.9 percent hard-hit rate. Look for the Over to improve to 17-9 in Cubs' road games.
Sandy Alcantara is giving up hard contact at an alarming rate (48.9 percent), and I like the Angels' bats to stay hot Friday. LA has won seven straight and just averaged 6.8 runs on a 10-game trip. Angels starter Yusei Kikuchi is coming off a strong outing against the Dodgers, owns a 2.38 ERA this month, and should fare well versus a Marlins' team sporting a .663 OPS against left-handed pitching.