We crush Liberty in this matchup if college football had a commissioner/any rules whatsoever. I'm not gonna sit here and be one of those "get off my lawn" guys but it's blatantly stupid the portal is open during bowl season. Liberty lost most of its best players in it and unlike some other bowls, we know they aren't playing led by QB Kaidon Salter (Colorado).

The portal has taken a bite out of Liberty, with do-everything QB Kaidon Salter off to Colorado and top RB Quinton Cooley (1264 YR; portal) both unavailable, and the Flames are also down thee starters along the OL. Liberty has disappointed this season, only 3-8 vs. the line and 4-11 against the spread since late 2023. Further, HC Jamey Chadwell is 0-4 vs. the spread in bowls with Liberty and Coastal Carolina. Meanwhile, Pete Lembo's Buffalo closed the season hot with four wins into Nassau, and mostly avoided major losses to the portal in the run-up to this bowl. Still in the fold is QB CJ Ogbonna (2244 YP and 19 TDF passes plus 311 YR) in the Bahamas. Play Buffalo (Bahamas Bowl)

Stop us if you’ve heard this before: Pick the side that is almost untouched by transfer defects over the opponent that has been hit hard. The Bulls enter with minimal erasures on their roster. The Flames do not have a lot, but the goners are key: QB Kaidon Salter, top RB Quinton Cooley and three offensive linemen. The fill-ins must deal with LBs Shaun Dolan and Red Murdock, who amazingly are the top two tacklers in the FBS. Buffalo owns the edge in momentum, too, having closed with four straight-up wins. The betting public all season has overestimated the Flames, who stand 3-8 ATS.