Boise State is off their big road victory over the Rebels. This total has dropped a point, and the Aztecs don’t want to get in a shootout with Boise State. They play at a similar pace as the Broncos, but they’ve only averaged 28.5 points per game over their last two, way below their 42.3 points per game average. San Diego State’s defense has held their opponents to under 30 points in each of their last four games, but it will be difficult to keep with the Broncos offense. San Diego State attempt to keep this a lower scoring affair, leaning heavily on their defense.

While it is admittedly terrifying to take an under in a game involving Ashton Jeanty, I think we've hit a point in the schedule where the points are slowing down in Boise games before the totals are. Overs in Boise State games went 4-0 in non-conference play but are just 1-2 in conference play with a pair of unders the last two times out. San Diego State has also been playing lower scoring games in general, with an average of 45.9 points per game (113th in FBS) in Aztec games this season.