New Mexico State has been very good for me this year and for anyone who bet on them. Coming into this game the Aggies are 10-2-1 against the spread. Liberty won early in the season 33-17 at home however I think New Mexico State has shown more improvement since that game. The Aggies have straight up won the last four games they were an underdog, including beating Auburn as a 24.5-point dog on the road. Jerry Kill's team is well prepared.

Liberty averages a 40-21 score to get to 12-0 (8-4 ATS) and New Mexico State comes in with one of the best cover records at 10-2-1 ATS. Liberty has the No. 5 offense in the nation and beat NMSU 33-17, and covered -9.5, on Sept. 9. NMSU went 5-2 on the road this season with an eye-opening win at Auburn a few weeks ago. Auburn gave them +25 and $1.85 million to play there. Liberty has scored 38 points or more in their last six games. NMSU has stayed Under in six of their last seven. Rain is expected and Liberty is the nation’s leading rushing team at 295 ypg. Liberty to cover.

Meet the Rodney Dangerfield of college football, as Jerry Kill's Aggies just can't seen to get any respect. Eight straight wins and ten straight covers haven't moved the needle all that much, in fact this price is higher than the last time NMSU visited Lynchburg in September and lost 33-17 (also last spread L). Of course, the Flames haven't lost to anyone all season, so maybe the respect is justified, but Liberty has had a few scraps along the way and is only 4-4 vs. the line its last eight games. Since Kill moved to Diego Pavia at QB midway last season, NMSU has punched above its weight and is 17-3 vs. the line its last 20 games. Play NMSU