Jacksonville State+7 - HC Rich Rodriguez' team trailed lowly Middle Tennessee State 23-7 at the half but won 45-30 with a big second half. Liberty beat a weak Sam Houston State team 21-16 as a 21.5-point favorite. Both teams have been moneymakers with Liberty 4-1 ATS and Jax State 5-1 ATS. Jax State love to spread you out on defense, run the football and play extremely fast. This will come down to who scores last. Jacksonville State+7

This total arrived unexpectedly high given that each side allows about 18 points per game and well under five yards per snap. Both rely on the run. Jacksonville State has yet to settle on a starting QB, so two will play -- and neither should throw much since the Flames have amassed 22 sacks. On the flip side, the Gamecocks are a fumble-forcing machine, with eight recoveries. Oddly, the total has drifted up a few points while it would make more sense for movement in the opposite direction.

Totals have been a mixed bag this year but these are two terrific defensive clubs (both allow 18.0 ppg or fewer). I actually was looking at this at 56.5 and now we get 58.5 -- the SL Model has 53 points scored. Liberty plays at quite a slow pace, while JSU wants to run all day. I may come back and play the spread too.