This explanation is pretty simple. Both teams have dominant defenses and an elite rushing attack. These two team have the top two scoring defenses in the FBS. The Golden Gophers allow 8.8 PPG and the Illini allow just 8 PPG so points will come at a premium. The Illini running back Chase Brown and the Gophers running back Mohamed Ibrahim rank 2nd and 4th in rush YPG respectively. This will be a slow paced, low scoring game. Under is the play.

This game won't look much different from Illinois' 9-6 win over Iowa last week. The Illini aren't likely to have QB Tommy Devito, which is a massive blow to their offense, but both these teams have gotten off to great starts due to their defense. Minnesota leans on its run game, and nobody has been able to run on Illinois. The first team to 14 wins.

These teams are both committed to the run game. Why not? They feature two of the top four running backs in the country in Illinois’ Chase Brown and the Gophers Mohamed Ibrahim, who is returning from injury this week. However, they also feature two of the top six rushing defenses. Illinois could also be shorthanded in the passing game as the availability of QB Tommy Devito and WR Isaiah Williams are in question. This figures to be a higher scoring than last week's Iowa-Illinois eye-bleeder, but not too much.

It might be hazardous to spot the top-ranked FBS team for points allowed this many points, but the spread being under seven offers some comfort. Minnesota is coming off a bye, which has allowed stellar RB Mohamed Ibrahim to heal from an injury. It also enabled the Gophers to reset after falling to Purdue, which followed four consecutive wins by a jaw-dropping average of 35 ppg. The Illini could hold out ailing QB Tommy DeVito and WR Isaiah Williams, among others, to heal with a bye week looming.