This total opened at 54 and is dropping because rain and wind are likely to be a factor tonight, but not like Colts-49ers monsoon conditions. Thus, now that this total has dropped under the magic number of 50 (think a 30-20 or 37-13 final score), I think it's safe to bet the Over. The teams combined for 80 points last year. That won't happen but Coastal seems likely to score at least 33 and Troy can get to 17. The SportsLine Projection Model actually has the final score 34-17.

Rain is expected with winds at 12 miles per hour, which is part of the reason why Coastal Carolina has the lowest total it has had all season. Troy also has the No. 7 ranked defense in the nation (286.9 yards allowed per game). But Coastal has the No. 7 ranked offense and is No. 2 in the nation at converting third downs (57.8 percent). Troy QB Gunnar Watson has elevated the offense in its last two games, both wins. Over is the top play here.