This is simply a numbers play for me. My projections have this total being too high. The Cougars defense has played a lot better than most realize, and neither one of these offenses has shown me a ton, as neither ranks in the top 50 nationally in offensive success rate.

Houston has won its last three games while Tulsa has found an offensive groove which includes 663 yards against Arkansas State last week and 501 yards against Ohio State two weeks ago, covering both. Tulsa QB Davis Brin is throwing with authority and confidence the last two games (five touchdown passes). I have Houston rated higher but respect Tulsa's play lately. Over is the top play.