Western Kentucky is 0-4 ATS, but UAB is just 1-3 ATS. UAB is without starting QB Tyler Johnston, which accounts for a s solid 2-point drop. UAB is 3-1 SU with its best win against a very weak South Alabama team, 42-10. Western Kentucky will start Kevaris Thomas, a 6-4, 250-pound quarterback. Thomas is a dual threat and he played very well versus Marshall. The total is only 44.5, so we are all expecting a low scoring game.

Western Kentucky had all kinds of problems last weekend vs Marshall and their ground game. Similar challenge this week as UAB's RB Spencer Brown is one of the more physical backs in college football, and is the Blazers all-time leading rusher. On the other side of the ball, quietly UAB has played very good defense, even frustrating teams like Miami at times. Right now, UAB is just a much better team overall.

This play is all about my world-famous inevitability principle that I just made up right now. You see, Western Kentucky hasn't covered a spread yet this year, and it's bound to eventually. OK, so that's not really why I'm making this pick. The truth of the matter is that, as good as UAB has been in C-USA the last few years, it doesn't deserve to be this heavy a favorite in this matchup, so I'm taking the points.