More often than not, the mid-majors struggle to score in the NCAA's "first four" round. The teams average in the low 70s, which means they would need to flirt with their averages for an Over. St. Francis games are below the median (227th) for average number of possessions per outing, so the Red Flash play with patience. (For its part, Alabama State ranks 146th.) Other major sportsbooks list the total in the 130s, which makes this a value pick.

A couple of low-major longshots who didn't get to the First Four by playing at a fast pace. This is especially true of St Francis, which jammed the gearbox on go-go Central Connecticut in the Northeast final at New Britain and came away a tedious 46-43 upset winner, qualifying for the Dance for the first time since Jim Baron's 1991 team. The Red Flash survived the NEC finale despite shooting only 31% FGS and even worse (5 for 26, 19%) beyond the arc. The Hornets also have limitations, shooting barely 40% from the floor, but defense is hard-nosed, as Grambling & Jackson State were held to 59 ppg in the last two of the SWAC Tourney. Play Alabama State-St Francis PA Under (NCAA at Dayton)