Louisville hasn’t quit, and at this point in the season we love to find big underdogs who have not quit on the season. Senior guard El Ellis, specifically, has not quit. In fact he’s been outstanding recently, averaging 27.3 points per game over his last three contests and finishing the Cards’ 10-point win against Clemson with a 360-degree dunk at the buzzer that sent the Yum! Center into a frenzy. Ellis is leading the way for a team that’s covered in five of its last six games, and he’s got extra motivation in this spot. A Durham, N.C. native, Ellis has said he cherishes every opportunity against the Blue Devils and I think he, and the rest of his teammates, will be able stay inside this number on Monday night.

Both teams are fresh off perhaps their best games of the season. For Louisville, with four straight-up wins, that’s not saying much. But the Ville preceded its upset of Clemson with a near-upset of Virginia, so a heretofore forgettable season is suddenly generating worthwhile memories. The Cardinals have covered in five of the last six. Duke, lights-out at Syracuse, figures to relax against the ACC bottom-dweller. The Devils’ blowout win does not erase their 3-10 ATS slump.

The Blue Devils are undefeated at home and coming off a dominant 77-55 win at Syracuse on Saturday. Still, this is too many points. Louisville is winless on the road and 2-14 in the ACC, but the Cardinals have shown big improvement the past three games under coach Kenny Payne: eight-point loss at Miami, three-point home loss to Virginia, 10-point home win over Clemson. Senior guard El Ellis has poured in 82 points over that span. Duke, which covered easily at Syracuse, has not covered consecutive games since the first two games of the season versus Jacksonville and South Carolina Upstate.