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Understanding Public and Money
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It’s not often that the nation’s top-ranked team receives multiple points. That’s the case here, with oddsmakers figuring Tennessee’s unlucky stretch of two straight setbacks on buzzer-beaters must end. However, the Volunteers’ peerless defense will be compromised with the absence of Josiah-Jordan James, also their premier rebounder. Another ailing defensive ace, Julian Phillips, is a game-time decision. ‘Alabama thought it might be missing 7footer Charles Bediako, a shot-blocker supreme, but he looks good to go.
This morning, I was leaning Tennessee on the moneyline but now I'll have to take the Tide at more than one possession -- i.e. can't lose ATS on a buzzer-beater -- as UT has ruled out wing Josiah-Jordan James for the second straight game (lost to Missouri without him Saturday) and with Julian Phillips a game time decision. JJJ averages 9.5 points, 5.3 rebounds and 1.1 steals per game and is the team's best free-throw shooter. Opponents this season are shooting 16-for-61 (.262) when he is the primary defender. Phillips averages 9.0 points and 4.8 rebounds. The Vols' Knoxville News Sentinel beat writer picked Bama to win outright.
Pretty stunned how high this total is, especially as it opened at 143.5, considering the SEC rivals are the top two teams nationally in holding their opponents to the lowest effective field goal percentage this season (No. 1 Tennessee, 40.7 percent and No. 2 Alabama, 41.1 percent). UT owns the country's best three-point defense (.242) along with the nation's second-best field-goal percentage defense (.355) and third-best scoring defense (56.3 ppg). I may come back and play the Vols ML as well but will wait and see where it lands.