The are only two teams in the top 15 of the NET who had sub-.500 records against Quadrant 1, one is Houston and the other was prematurely-bounced Iowa Hawkeyes. At some point the high efficiency rating's disconnect with Houston's record against the best competition on its schedule has to be come into play, and I think an Illinois team playing with house money after the win against Chattanooga is the foe to take down the Computer Trickin' Coogs.

These teams are both a bit streaky and that makes this game hard to predict. I tend to think that whoever wins this game is going to pull away at some point by going on a 15-4 type run. If Illinois loses this game it probably be by more than 3.5 points, but I do think they have a good chance to win it too. March has been absolutely insane, especially with spreads. I'm taking the plus money and rooting for the underdog that had one of the toughest schedules in all of D1.

Houston shot 53 percent from the field against UAB on Friday and 48 percent from 3-point range, hitting 10-of-21 from long distance, while forcing 12 turnovers. But UAB wasn’t completely shut down offensively. I think the Cougars have plenty of room for improvement, but defense is their specialty – they're No. 1 in the nation, allowing 37 percent shooting from the field. Illinois hasn’t covered in its last four and lost at Purdue 84-68 the last time it was an underdog. I’m on Houston to cover.

The Cougars are rolling. They are 8-1 SU and ATS in their last nine games, including a 14 point win in their first round matchup. The Illini are 0-4 ATS in their last four games. They only beat the Mocs by one point and they held a lead for less than 35 seconds of game time. The Cougars are a dominant defensive team and they will stop the Illini offense from doing anything. This spread is way too small. The Cougars defense will dominate this game and they will cover this spread easily.

Houston was on fire against UAB, shooting 53.3 percent from the field and 47.6 from three-point land. That was well above their season averages. The Cougars rank 140th in three-point percentage. Illinois shot 38.8 percent from the field and 17.6 percent from long range in its one-point victory against Chattanooga. Led by Kofi Cockburn, Illinois should be able to wear down Houston with its depth. The Fighting Illini played the tougher schedule (No. 11 vs. No. 51). They are 10-1 SU after scoring 60 points or fewer, including 5-0 this season. I think they can win this outright. Take the points!