One of the wildest games last week was the Guardians' 11-10 victory over the Twins. Both starting pitchers, Sonny Gray and Triston McKenzie, are on the mound in Monday’s new series. As great as McKenzie’s home ERA is at 2.76, the Twins have hit five of the 14 home runs McKenzie has allowed this season. Back the road-favored Twins.

These two starters faced the opposing team last time around and neither pitcher pitched well. These teams are 3-3 against each other this season but all six games were in Minnesota. Cleveland has now lost four straight games but they are 16-13 at home this season. Three of those were also against the red hot Red Sox. The Guardians won two of three games in Minnesota two series ago, I like the division matchup at home to break out of this slump. They hit righties much better than lefties so they should have their best lineup in tonight and their bullpen is rested. I think the wrong team is favored.

My model says the Guardians win in almost 60 percent of the simulations, so you're getting good value with them at this number. Cleveland has lost four straight after winning 17 of 21 and has stalled in their charge toward first place in the American League Central. But they still are only two games behind the Twins and won back-to-back games at Minnesota before their current skid. The Guardians chased Minnesota RHP Sonny Gray after he yielded four runs and eight hits over only four innings en route to an 11-10 triumph last week. Look for Cleveland to end its slide.