Don't love this matchup but also don't think the Rangers should be getting the +1.5 at home so we'll play a little out of principle. Cleveland just lost three of four at the awful White Sox over the weekend and tonight's pitcher, Tanner Bibbe, had his worst outing of the season last time out. A few Rangers have good if limited splits off him. Texas was embarrassed over the weekend in a home sweep by Colorado but that only makes me like the Rangers more in this spot because they certainly won't rest any healthy key guys after that. The Texas bullpen is in very good shape at least.

The Bucs could be really thin in the pen after back-to-back one-run games over the weekend against the Cubs with the finale going 10 innings. Starter Mitch Keller is 0-4 with a 6.23 ERA in seven career starts vs. the Brewers. Will consider a Rhys Hoskins hitting prop as he's 5-for-8 career off Keller with two doubles and a triple. Not a huge Colin Rea guy for the Brewers but like most everything else here.

This price is obviously stupid, but I can't believe the Rangers are home dogs up 3-1 and unbeaten at MSG in these playoffs. Happily take the +1.5 gift. Our max is two units, so that's the play. You can definitely count on this being part of my new daily Twitter (will never say X) parlay as well Monday, but I'm fine solo. While I'm certainly not ruling out the Canes winning (couldn't care less who wins), I would be quite surprised if it's by multiple goals barring some empty net nonsense and that's obviously the risk. Igor Shesterkin has won eight straight home starts dating to the regular season.

Two pretty blah offenses, and the winds apparently are blowing in at pitcher-friendly Comerica Park. Kinda surprised this rose to 9, and I'm gonna play 9.5 to avoid a possible push. I do worry a tad about Marlins starter Sixto Sanchez and his 7.50 ERA this season, but he once was a very touted prospect and had a solid 3.46 ERA last year as a rookie. Matt Manning once was one of Detroit's top prospects. The 26-year-old is 0-1 with a 4.24 ERA in three MLB starts this year but had a 3.75 ERA at home in 2023.

Toronto's Jose Berrios is 10-1 with a 2.98 ERA vs. Baltimore career but the vast majority of those came when the Orioles weren't any good. Berrios has been very good this year, too, but crushed last time out in Philly and generally pitches much worse outside of Toronto. There apparently is a bit of a bug going around the Jays clubhouse too. They are only 5-12 in their past 17. Baltimore's Corbin Burnes, the second favorite for AL Cy Young, hasn't allowed more than three earned this season.

This series reminds me why I started liking hockey as a kid. Dudes flying around and scoring plenty of goals. Really an entertaining first two games. Thought maybe the Canucks would go back to Casey DeSmith in net after Arturs Silovs allowed four goals in each of the first two, but Silovs is in there again. Counterpart Stuart Skinner hasn't been any better in this series but had significantly better home numbers during the regular season.

Can't say I was too surprised the Nuggets showed championship mettle in a must-win Game 3, but Nikola Jokic still is not shooting that great in the series, at least by his super-high standards. Minnesota's defense has been about six points better at home in these playoffs and I don't see the Wolves bricking 23 3-pointers again.

It does not sound like Shohei Ohtani will play today due to some back issues. I thought he might struggle a little with the new team, league, etc., but has been amazing. Hey, it helps to focus when your BFF isn't siphoning millions of dollars from your bank account. Who doesn't notice that? Something fishy there. In college, if my buddies didn't pay me back the $2 I lent them for some Mad Dog 20/20, I'd go breaking kneecaps Sopranos-style. $16 million?!? Then again, that might be $2 to Ohtani.

Feeling a little burned by Seattle yesterday but am gonna try this instead of the runline behind Luis Castillo. A 1-0 win wouldn't surprise is my point, and I'm just not feeling the first five love. Almost never will play a pitcher Under 1.5 earned runs, either, although I certainly hope that's the case today for Castillo (don't like O/U 18.5 outs, either). A couple of Oakland regulars are taking a seat in the getaway game, although it's the A's so not like you'd notice that much.

I don't know what's going on in the NBA of late to be honest. This is a big number, but there are ways of manipulating it. I would be surprised if the Knicks won as I still think Thibs playing his key guys so many dang minutes is gonna matter at some point. I'm honestly half surprised that Josh Hart isn't Captain Dan in a wheelchair by now ("you ain't go no legs!"). Dude never comes off the court. I miss feeling invincible in my late 20s ... shoot, I'd take late 30s.

Happy Mother's Day! Parents can be a pain but cherish them, man, they can be gone in a second. Miss my Dad like crazy. If you don't see any picks from me for a few days, it's because my Mom wants me to cook for her this evening and all I know how to make are tacos, ramen, popcorn and Beefaroni (not necessarily in that order) and none of that is on the menu. So I've either been arrested for involuntary manslaughter or we are all in the hospital. Hey, I warned her this isn't my jam. I will buy up to 9.5 here but I'm cautious that way. And I don't like pushes. Or cooking. Or Exorcist-like vomiting. It's all on the table.

Such a massive home-ice advantage in Denver and we would see history if Valeri Nichushkin scores again for the Avs. His playoff-opening goal streak stands at seven games, sharing the longest such run in NHL history with Pat LaFontaine. I used to love PLF for some reason back in the day (great last name for sure. LaFontaine! Pat LaFontaine! Shaken not stirred. Does sound like a French James Bond). Wasn't an Islanders fan really but liked their jerseys. No Blackhawks or North Stars (not current Stars at all) or Maple Leafs or Whalers (those were epic), but they were pretty good. Then for a while they changed to that stupid Gorton's fisherman one.

I don't love giving away a half run regarding that Seattle offense but I really want to fade Oakland pitcher Joey Estes. Moneyline to win and outright first five were too pricy so we roll with this. Estes had a 6.04 ERA in Triple-A this year. He made his MLB debut with the A's last year, started two games in September and allowed nine runs on 12 hits over 10 innings. Joey Chestnut might fare better. How are the best competitive eaters so thin?! Well, I think we know why. See Stand By Me ...

Maybe we get lucky and Jarrett Allen returns, although I'm not exactly counting on that. Even not, I think at home the Cavs are more than capable of staying inside this number, although in a way I'd prefer they were coming off a second straight loss in the series instead of the stunning victory in Boston.