Fade Conor McGregor after a 5-year layoff?...

Mike McClure's model for this bout tonight at the White House gives Justin Gaethje a 32% chance of knocking off unbeaten Ilia Topuria in the main event for the lightweight title. Per Mike's sims, we are getting decent value here because 32% -- I would give Gaethje about a one in three chance too -- equates to +213 on the money line so let's throw a half-unit shot down. Apparently this card will go even if it's raining. Very interested to tune into Paramount+ at 8 ET to see the setup. Then it's probably back to Season 2 of Your Friends & Neighbors for me until the main event.

This is the one fight in which the underdog has seen some steady action, but we like Lopes on the reduced price from an opener of -200. Lopes came up short in two title bids against Volkanovski but should have the edge in this matchup. Steve Garcia is a dangerous brawler but the last time Lopes saw a similar matchup, against Jean Silva, he took him out in short order. Capitalize on the discount price here, as Lopes has been seen as low as -150 in some markets.

Both Lopes and Garcia are hard-nosed fighters who will not shy away from a brawl. Garcia is an intimidating striker who uses his rangy Muay Thai style and heavy forward pressure effectively. On his seven-fight win streak, Garcia has walked down many of his opponents and broken their spirits early. Skill for skill, Lopes has more high-level tools in his MMA arsenal. He has championship-level experience, granite in his fists and a slick Ju-Jitsu game. Although I give Lopes the technical advantage in several areas, his striking defense still has holes, and I can see Garcia's awkward and aggressive style giving him trouble. If Garcia can defend some grappling exchanges and take Lopes’ punches early, I think Garcia can out-brawl Lopes in a nasty fight.

Don't watch a lot of UFC -- more in 2026 than before thanks to it being on Paramount+ now -- but will check in on this Sunday to see the setup at the White House. Trying to think where the next cool place to host a card should be. Grand Canyon? Eiffel Tower? Sydney Opera House (my favorite man-made structure)? We recently saw a boxing match from the Pyramids in Giza. Dana White has said Alex Pereira is the UFC GOAT with a win to become a three-division champion as there has never been one. But the natural heavyweight Ciryl Gane might be a good 30 pounds bigger and has a two-inch reach edge. Current heavyweight champ Tom Aspinall leans Gane.

Although this card is full of fights with odds that suggest a “squash match,” shorthand for a lopsided matchup, we feel at least one matchup is likely to upset the chalk-heavy continuum and wreck parlays. We’re going to back Daukaus, whose career resurgence has seen him find a six-fight winning streak, which includes a two-fight finish streak in his second stint with the UFC. He has shown an increasingly polished skillset and we expect him at worst to be a stiff challenge for the polarizing Nickal, the prodigal wrestling talent who is 5-1 in the UFC but 0-1 against ranked competition. Daukaus has shown the talent to merit a top-15 ranking and he’ll get there should he pull the upset,

Diego Lopes is coming off two losses to Alexander Volkanovski in his last three fights but I see Steve Garcia being a better matchup for him. Both fighters are dangerous strikers. The difference is Lopes is a much bigger threat on the ground with 12 career submissions. Lopes has shown to be an easy target at times and that is a concern against a skilled striker like Garcia. However, Lopes has beaten top featherweight competition outside of Volkanovski, and he has more paths to victory. I like Lopes -150 on the ML and +420 to win by submission.

This is a bit of a chalky price but there's still some relative value on Brito, a once fast-rising prospect whose 7-1 UFC start included a debut win over future title contender Diego Lopes. Brito saw his momentum halted with back-to-back losses and is looking to get back on track. He has an edge in overall skillset against Leavitt, who is a journeyman-plus with a 6-3 UFC record. He is a tricky grappler who can surprise unprepared opponents, but Brito is the level of fighter against whom he usually comes up short.

Although Muhammad is 10 years older than the rising prospect Bonfim, I think Muhammad has more paths to victory. Muhammad has been facing elite competition for the last five years. He uses his pressure boxing style to set up his grinding wrestling attack, which can break his opponents down. Bonfim is an explosive striker who will have a speed advantage early with his kicks and knees. He is also a dangerous Ju-Jitsu player, with a nasty squeeze on his front chokes. Bonfim sports a shiny 19-1 pro record, but his lone loss came against Nicolas Dalby, a fighter known for his work rate and gritty style. Muhammad’s cardio, durability, and experience will help him take over this fight if it gets into the later rounds.

Allen's elite grappling, pressure striking and high-level experience make him a tough matchup. He should be looking to close the distance and take this fight to the floor, where Shahbazyan has had his struggles. Shahbazyan is a powerful kickboxer with six knockout wins in the UFC. His head kicks, hooks and vicious knees make him live for the knockout against any middleweight opponent. Shahbazyan is still just 28 years old and has continued to improve, but I still don't think his grappling defense will be up to par. If Shahbazyan doesn’t land big damage early in this fight, I see him being taken down and overwhelmed by Allen’s grappling.

Mitchell was slated to face bantamweight veteran Victor Henry, but will now fight Luna who steps in on short notice. Mitchell won his first fight after moving down to the 135-pound division, which may be the proper weight class for him. Luna is an exciting 8-0 prospect with great potential at just 21 years old. Luna’s game is aggressive, with knockout power in his hooks and grappling skills to boot. I expect Luna to find success in the UFC, but this is a tough veteran test for him. Mitchell has faced title contenders and champions in his career, and has a very high-level grappling game. Mitchell is 9-3 in the UFC, and will use his experience to pick up the win.

This line has moved towards Gabriel Bonfim over the last 48 hours and it makes sense. Bonfirm is 19-1, a strong finisher, and Belal Muhammad has lost two straight fights. However, I'm still backing the veteran at -110. This fight is at the Apex where the smaller octagon favors Muhammad, who is an elite grappler. Bonfirm's path to victory is to keep his distance and hurt Muhammad with kicks and strikes. The problem is Muhammad is a pro at controlling his opponents in clinches and wearing them down against the cage. Bonfirm has shown a tendency to tire after the first couple of rounds, while Muhammad is known for his stamina. I expect the veteran to grind out a decision win in the main event.

The southpaw Chelsea Chandler is two years younger and has a three-inch reach edge on Priscila Cachoeira for Saturday's bout from Vegas. The underdog is the bigger hitter but also gets hit a lot: Cachoeira absorbs a whopping 7.60 significant strikes per minute for a significant strikes differential of -3.17. Chandler has a differential there of –0.89 but is the far superior grappler.

This is a battle between longtime strawweight veterans. Xiong was the champion in the ONE championship fight promotion, sporting an impressive seven title defenses on her polished 19-2 pro record. Following a three-year layoff, ong returned to MMA and picked up a win in Xi 2025. Still, I wonder if she'll be ready for a matchup against a tough opponent like Hill. At 41 years old, Hill doesn't seem to be slowing down much. Her recent losses came against rising strawweight talents, and she's remained competitive even when outmatched. Hill's volume, pressure and hard-nosed style make her a tough out against anybody. She has been much more active than Xiong and has fought against tougher competition, so I'll take a shot on Hill as the underdog.

Henrique is a big fighter for the welterweight division, standing 6-foot-3 with a 79-inch reach, but he is still just 8-1 in his MMA career and hasn't fought since 2024. Ding is 35-9, so he will have a significant experience advantage. Ding's grappling defense needs work, but Henrique isn't looking to submit his opponents. This should give Deng the confidence to stand and trade. Henrique might be the more dangerous fighter early on, but I lean towards Ding for his experience and durability.