Fade Conor McGregor after a 5-year layoff?...

This is the one fight in which the underdog has seen some steady action, but we like Lopes on the reduced price from an opener of -200. Lopes came up short in two title bids against Volkanovski but should have the edge in this matchup. Steve Garcia is a dangerous brawler but the last time Lopes saw a similar matchup, against Jean Silva, he took him out in short order. Capitalize on the discount price here, as Lopes has been seen as low as -150 in some markets.

Although this card is full of fights with odds that suggest a “squash match,” shorthand for a lopsided matchup, we feel at least one matchup is likely to upset the chalk-heavy continuum and wreck parlays. We’re going to back Daukaus, whose career resurgence has seen him find a six-fight winning streak, which includes a two-fight finish streak in his second stint with the UFC. He has shown an increasingly polished skillset and we expect him at worst to be a stiff challenge for the polarizing Nickal, the prodigal wrestling talent who is 5-1 in the UFC but 0-1 against ranked competition. Daukaus has shown the talent to merit a top-15 ranking and he’ll get there should he pull the upset,

This is a bit of a chalky price but there's still some relative value on Brito, a once fast-rising prospect whose 7-1 UFC start included a debut win over future title contender Diego Lopes. Brito saw his momentum halted with back-to-back losses and is looking to get back on track. He has an edge in overall skillset against Leavitt, who is a journeyman-plus with a 6-3 UFC record. He is a tricky grappler who can surprise unprepared opponents, but Brito is the level of fighter against whom he usually comes up short.

We'll take the 4-point discount offered on the Celtics amid the late-breaking news of Jayson Tatum's injury scratch. Boston's 43-23 record without Tatum this year suggests he is one of the more expendable NBA stars relative to his team's success and there's a history of such instances in which a team rallies in the absence of a key player in a big game.

The short-handed Timberwolves predictably struggled in a Game 5 blowout loss, and it stands to reason Game 6 on their home floor presents their best chance of winning this first-round series. Despite going without star Anthony Edwards, this Minnesota team plays with much better energy on its home floor and a depth-limited Denver club has lacked resilience and poise on the road. The Nuggets have failed to cover in 8 straight road games and, should they escape with a win Thursday night, we believe it will be by a razor-thin margin over a Minnesota club that we expect to fight until the final buzzer.

This feels like a prime letdown spot for a Lakers club that is in the second of a six-game road swing. They toppled the short-handed Rockets 100-92 on Monday night, but the return of big man Alperen Sengun should give Houston a needed boost as it aims to close the gap for the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference playoffs.

The Wolf Pack made the MWC semifinals before being ousted by eventual champion Utah State. Although they played in a tougher conference than the Racers did in the Missouri Valley Conference and Murray State stumbled to losses in 4 of its past 5, we have seen enough of Nevada to observe that this is a difficult spot in which to back the Wolf Pack as a nearly double-digit favorite.

The bubble-straddling Knights snapped a three-game skid and kept their NCAA Tournament hopes alive with a wild late comeback Wednesday against Cincinnati. It wouldn't take much in the way of a respectable performance to cover against high-powered Arizona, and UFC did just that in an 84-77 loss in their regular-season meeting despite a relatively lackluster performance in which it shot just 40% from the field. Look for the Knights to at least put up an ample fight in this rematch.

The Broncos likely secured their first NCAA Tournament bid in 30 years on the strength of their upset win over Saint Mary's in the WCC semifinals to advance to their first final in 19 years. This is a legitimate NCAA-worthy Santa Clara club but it faces a tough turnaround against a Gonzaga club that is looking to shake off a somewhat lackluster effort against Oregon State in the semifinals. This is likely Mark Few's most talented team since the 2021 team that reached the NCAA title game, and we expect a sharp performance that leads to a double-figure win and another WCC title.

Hollins has cleared this number in 6 of his last 7 games played. He has only had one playoff appearance because of injuries, but he's proven when healthy to be a reliable and preferred weapon for Drake Maye in the passing game. We see the veteran WR clearing this number with ease.

No running back has gone for more than 37 yards (RJ Harvey) in the playoffs against the New England defense. Although Walker is the most explosive RB they have yet faced and will have a bell-cow workload, we doubt he'll reach this number as we anticipate a competitive game script and a defensive effort that will limit Walker's numbers.

Maye has crushed this number in two of three playoff games and his rushing upside is always a threat for the Patriots offense. But we expect the Seattle defense to keep him in check and also feel that this line is a bit trappy. This particular prop was the first to see major movement and we're sensing it goes the way of the steam on the Jarrett Stidham passing prop 2 weeks ago. That is, under with room to spare.

These neutral-site odds suggest the game would be about -7.5 in Seattle, which no doubt would feel disrespectful to the Patriots. But many bettors are laying this number as if they are reading it out of a box score. The Seahawks are the better team, but the Patriots didn't arrive in the Super Bowl by accident. We believe the outcome lands on an early key number and find value in the points.

The Jayhawks have been rolling of late, with 5 straight wins behind a blowout of then-undefeated Iowa State. But they barely held on Saturday against BYU amid a mysterious from start Darryn Peterson. This is a strong bounce-back spot for a Red Raiders club coming off an upset loss at UCF following 5 straight wins.

Last week, the Bills overcame atrocious officiating (the Cooks' catch overturn/0:00 FG attempt could have been an outcome-altering sequence) to beat a Jags team that was arguably playing better than the Broncos were to end the regular season. Buffalo should be able to get back to the run game and also faces a less formidable rushing attack from Denver than it did against Jacksonville. We've seen similar line movement and will again back a Bills team that many observers are underestimating.