Matt's Picks (3 Live)
Over the weekend, the Royals lost one of their better hitters in Vinnie Barbarino ... err Pasquantino for 4-6 weeks. They can't hit much as is and are 3-15 vs. southpaws. K.C. is also 10 games under .500 away and goes with Mitch Spence on the mound -- Spence is 11-16 with a 4.91 ERA in his three seasons in the Show and was only just called back up. It's lefty Andrew Alvarez (3.70 ERA) for the Nats -- although he might not be out there more 4-5 innings as essentially an extended opener. Washington has won two straight and six of nine overall. Might be the first time have played it all season as a ML favorite. Might be the last if don't win.
I will be honest with you here. If one of these Rockies-Athletics Under 14 plays was going to lose this weekend from Sin City, it's probably this one because of the 12:05 local start time. Just scorching hot and yep winds blowing out again. I am trying to think of what it would take for me to go watch a Rockies-A's game in Las Vegas in that heat at high noon with no roof (the new A's stadium of course will have one). Maybe Belinda Carlisle's phone number gets it done but doubt that monetarily anything less than 2K and a comped night at the Caesars Palace Nobu Villa (only 40K) would. The starting pitchers really don't matter. The bullpens will decide it.
Mike McClure's model for this bout tonight at the White House gives Justin Gaethje a 32% chance of knocking off unbeaten Ilia Topuria in the main event for the lightweight title. Per Mike's sims, we are getting decent value here because 32% -- I would give Gaethje about a one in three chance too -- equates to +213 on the money line so let's throw a half-unit shot down. Apparently this card will go even if it's raining. Very interested to tune into Paramount+ at 8 ET to see the setup. Then it's probably back to Season 2 of Your Friends & Neighbors for me until the main event.
Very fair price on Carolina's Nikolaj Ehlers considering he has back-to-back three-point games -- although I will say potential elimination games tend to be lower-scoring. I'm a bit surprised that Vegas coach John Tortorella is sticking with struggling Carter Hart in net, but Torts is known to be quite stubborn. Unfortunately, I don't see any sides or totals in our system that I like much as I'd prefer to play something on one in perhaps the last hockey until October. If this were Monday, I'd probably do the same parlay I did for Game 5 at CBS Sports betting site: Knights +2.5 and Carolina Over 2.5 goals -- that's priced +109 at BetRivers. Hoping for a Game 7 ...
I am not one of those people who just auto-bets Paul Skenes or the Miz (I will address him this week in the newsletter when he starts next) or Tarik Skubal or Shohei (pitcher version) but see now we are getting value because Skenes is winless in a career-high five straight games. I would venture to guess that the lookahead lines -- those don't exist in MLB but I have trading experience so a general idea -- would be about -250 a couple of weeks ago. I feel like this is an overreaction number.
Sadly, the Blue Jays just announced that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is out against the Yankees, so I no longer like Toronto +1.5 that much. Pretty weak sitting him in a marquee matchup against the AL Cy Young favorite with a team off day coming Monday anyways. So I'm essentially replacing that with this. The Cards have lost two straight one-run games so their bullpen is taxed. NL Rookie of the Year favorite JJ Wetherholt is out. That entire lineup looks rather garbage to me. If the Twins weren't starting struggling lefty Connor Prielipp (2-4, 5.15 ERA) I might just play the ML. But Prielipp has been better at home (2-2, 3.76 ERA).
Same deal as Friday really from Las Vegas. Completely prepared to lose but such an obscene number that it's a must-go -- and hasn't come that close to being topped since that wild 29-run game Monday. If you have ever been to Sin City in the summer, and I have a few times (not a big fan and probably won't return now that you can bet anywhere; miss the 24-hour buffets though), then I probably don't have to tell you the weather. Imagine drinking a Tabasco and Cholula shake whilst sitting in a tanning bed on the sun. Our model has about 11, and 10 were scored last night.
On one of my hottest runs in a long while, and if you had told me even two years ago that soccer would have been a part of that I would have thrown garlic at you assuming a vampire. I do keep random garlic JIC but have Twilight issues. This is not sustainable for me as confident as I am, but if so I'll have you all over at my private Caribbean island (non-weird version) in a year or two. Guess I understand why the Yanks are favored in Toronto with AL Cy Young favorite Cam Schlittler on the mound, but the Jays' Kevin Gausman has been doing this a lot longer and very few Yankees hit him well career. Don't need a win.
Someone in the SportsLine Discord just said the Dodgers have their "Sunday lineup" in today. My dawg Joe is right: No Shohei or Will Smith (on IL) or even very solid No. 2 catcher Dalton Rushing. Who the heck are Santiago Espinal and Chuckie Robinson? Your 8-9 LA hitters, that's who. The Sox might win outright, but I'll definitely take this nice price at +1.5. I can hear former Sox legendary voice Hawk Harrelson now: "And this ballgame is OVAH! Mercy!"
This is the first match of the tournament with a total of 1.5 and that's because Ecuador is a stellar defensive club -- a whopping 13 clean sheets in qualifying. Defenders Piero Hincapié and Willian Pacho recently squared off in the Champions League final, and Moisés Caicedo is considered one of the top defensive midfielders in Europe (plays for Chelsea). I definitely came here looking to play Under 2.5 but since that's not an option, will go this route. Ecuador is ranked nine spots higher by FIFA. Ivory Coast is quite talented led by Yan Diomande and might make noise in 2030 (Morocco, Portugal, and Spain host) as the youngest team in this field. It has never beaten a South American team in the WC.
Playing a half on this because a total of 14 is just wow. But this is another Athletics game in that minor-league ballpark in Vegas where it's scorching hot and winds blowing out. Yes, we did see 29 total runs scored there Monday vs. Milwaukee but then 12 and seven the next two. Pitcher Gage Jump -- what a great Boogie Nights-type moniker -- is a top Athletics prospect and been great his past two. He knows what it's like pitching in Vegas as he did a handful of times earlier this year while with the team's Triple-A affiliate there (same ballpark). This is one of those if I lose, I just shrug it off as have to play something on such a number.
I feel like I just struck oil in my backyard like the Clampetts when it comes to these NO win pitcher props as I can't seem to lose. Which means total toast tonight, but I'm pretty darn excited to see the Dodgers on the South Side (should be a rare sellout). Who would have guessed it would be a matchup of division leaders and possible World Series preview -- OK, the Sox aren't there yet -- back in March? LA starter Roki Sasaki has been much better of late but still has an ERA near 5.00 away and hasn't gone a full five in three starts overall this year. Simply asking for a ND. Possible that Shohei Ohtani sits after leaving Thursday with knee inflammation.
I don't think much of Boston as it has lost four in a row and is last in the AL East, but the Sox were off on Thursday so obviously the bullpen is fully ready behind Sonny Gray (7-1, 3.20). He's a rare thing that has gone right for the team in 2026 and is 3-0 with a 2.52 ERA in five home starts. The Rangers won in Kansas City on Thursday and used their closer Jacob Latz (10 saves, 1.69 ERA) for a second straight game so I'd imagine he's not available tonight. Starter Jack Leiter (3-5, 4.69 ERA) has been hit pretty hard in three of his past four overall and has a 5.29 road ERA.
Don't watch a lot of UFC -- more in 2026 than before thanks to it being on Paramount+ now -- but will check in on this Sunday to see the setup at the White House. Trying to think where the next cool place to host a card should be. Grand Canyon? Eiffel Tower? Sydney Opera House (my favorite man-made structure)? We recently saw a boxing match from the Pyramids in Giza. Dana White has said Alex Pereira is the UFC GOAT with a win to become a three-division champion as there has never been one. But the natural heavyweight Ciryl Gane might be a good 30 pounds bigger and has a two-inch reach edge. Current heavyweight champ Tom Aspinall leans Gane.
This has to stop right? All these high-scoring Stanley Cup Final games? It's one of the highest-scoring Finals ever through four games. Until they do stop, we have to take the only 5.5 on our board; finally have 6.5s. But at least here we win on 4-2. Carolina has scored at least four goals in six straight games, and I have little doubt this would land Over if that continues. I may come back and play the side, haven't decided, or a prop.