The Toronto Maple Leafs have won five straight games despite being out-shot in each matchup, 159-127. Red Flag. They just completed a home-and-home series against Philadelphia. Fading squads in this role have been profitable against winning teams. Carolina is ranked third in shots against with a +272 shot differential, while Toronto is ranked 28th with a -46 shot differential. The Hurricanes have played the tougher schedule (No. 9 vs. No. 17) and are 11-3 after a loss this season. I like the home team.