I think this is essentially Game 7 for the Lightning, they need to win this game to have any chance at staying in this series. We know how good the Avs have been on the road in Game 3, but I will take my chances at a pick em on the back-to-back defending Stanley Cup champions anytime. The Lightning gave up pretty early in Game 2 so I don’t understand all the talk about the Avs just being that much better. They have definitely looked like the better team, but how many times have we already counted out the Lightning? They went down 2-0 on the road against the Rangers before rattling off four straight wins. I would also still take Andrei Vasilevskiy over Darcy Kuemper any day of the week. I like the value in the Lightning at home.

Have hit on the over and the Avalanche in both games, so that's been nice. On the surface, not taking Colorado again here after the shocking 7-0 obliteration of the Bolts in Game 2 might be opaque, but I have to think the two-time champs have their best game in them back home Monday. Andrei Vasilevskiy has been shockingly bad so far, but the future Hall of Famer and playoff legend is 7-1 with a 1.69 GAA at home this postseason. The Avs might be without forward Andre Burakovsky due to a hand injury. He scored the overtime winner in Colorado's 4-3 victory in Game 1, then had a goal and assist in Game 2 before being injured. I will still back Tampa Bay regardless. Have to go over again until they prove me wrong, but, again, I will buy it down to 5.5 goals to avoid a possible push. I'll even call my shot: Tampa Bay 4, Colorado 2 with the fourth goal on an empty net.