Yes, the Lightning won the opener 5-1, but it was 2-1 entering the third. Statistically, the game was pretty even. Montreal should get back key penalty-killer Joel Armia after he missed the opener in the COVID protocols that caused a travel delay for him. The Habs also haven't dropped back-to-back playoff games since losing Games 2-4 in the first round vs. Toronto. Tampa Bay might be without key forward Alex Killorn, who left Game 1 injured. I still say the Lightning are the better team, but the best value here is Montreal at -145 on the puckline. That way, we win three ways: Habs victory; Habs one-goal regulation loss; any overtime result.

I am not taking the Lightning to win this game with about a 70% chance according to the implied probability, and I still think this series will be closer than expected so I am going to stick with the underdog. The Canadiens have been better on the road all season long, and Carey Price will have a much better game than he did in Game 1. The Canadiens were playing down just about all game, and that is not what they are built to do. I expect the Habs to come out much stronger in Game 2 and put together a 60 minute game.

The Over hit last game with the Lightning scoring three goals in the third after the Canadiens had played a solid game defensively. Carey Price didn't look sharp and the Canadiens only goal was a slapshot that bounced off two separate defenders skates to go in. I think the Canadiens will put together a more complete performance this game and Carey Price will be much better after playing in his first ever Stanley Cup game.

Still pretty irked that Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final went Over 5.5 goals with the Bolts winning 5-1 -- it was 2-1 through two periods and the sixth goal came with about 90 seconds left. Montreal netminder Carey Price will not be that shaky again. He hadn't allowed more than four goals in a game in these playoffs and last time Price did give up four, he didn't surrender more than two in five straight outings after. The Under is 7-1-2 in Tampa's past 10 after a win -- I actually dislike this total sitting right on five goals due to the very likely push factor, but I don't have the option of doing an alternate total of Under 5.5 goals via our picks yet (recommend you do).