Trevor Lawrence 2023 NFL season props, odds: Bettors expect career year for Jaguars quarterback, potentially team's first-ever MVP vote

Trevor Lawrence was the no-doubt No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft by Jacksonville. The former Clemson star was considered the top quarterback prospect to enter the league in years. However, Urban Meyer nearly wrecked that career before it got started. The Jaguars upgraded at coach last year with Doug Pederson, and now Lawrence's career appears on track. Bettors at DraftKings are expecting him to have a massive season.

Lawrence did struggle at first in Pederson's offense as Jacksonville started the season 3-7. However, Lawrence and the Jags were a completely different team the rest of the way and won the AFC North title at 9-8. Only 2022 NFL MVP Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow earned a higher quarterback grade than Lawrence from Week 9 onward.

Overall, Lawerence completed 66.6% of his passes for 4,113 yards, 25 touchdowns and eight picks for a rating of 95.2. The 23-year-old improved his passer rating by 23.3 points from 2021's 71.9, the largest increase in NFL history from a player's first season to his second (minimum 400 pass attempts). Lawrence became the first Jaguars quarterback to earn a Pro Bowl selection since David Garrard in 2009 and just the third all-time (Mark Brunell was named to three Pro Bowls).

Here are Trevor Lawrence props available at DraftKings:

• To win NFL MVP: +1500
• To throw for at least 4000 yards: -120
• To throw for at least 5000 yards: +700
• Over/Under 4050.5 passing yards: Over -115 favorite
• Over/Under 26.5 passing TDs: Both -110
• To lead NFL in passing yards: +1800
• To lead NFL in passing TDs: +3000
• To lead NFL in interceptions: +4000
• To throw for 300 yards in at least eight games: +200
• To throw for 500 yards in any game: +400

Numberfire.com has projected Lawrence for 4,329.7 passing yards, 27.7 TDs and 9.1 picks. The DraftKings leans are quite telling: 89% of the handle and 75% of the bets on the yardage Over, and 98% of the money and 89% of the tickets on the TDs Over.

There's no question the Jaguars upgraded their skill position talent around Lawrence, beginning at the 2022 trade deadline when Jacksonville acquired former Falcons Pro Bowl receiver Calvin Ridley. He had to sit out all last year for a gambling suspension but has predicted a 1400-yard season in this offense.

Christian Kirk might have actually lived up to his big contract last year with 84 catches for 1,108 yards and eight TDs. Zay Jones (82/823/5) is a solid No. 3 and tight end Evan Engram (73/766/4) was signed to a long-term extension this offseason.

Travis Etienne rushed for 1,125 yards and also caught 35 passes for 316 yards. The Jaguars are absolutely giddy about third-round rookie RB Tank Bigsby out of Auburn. This team is loaded offensively. Remember, it did reach the Divisional Round of the playoffs without Ridley and Bigsby.

Lawrence has six career 300-yard games – Jacksonville is 4-2 in those – with a high of 368 last December vs. Tennessee. The franchise single-game record is 432 yards by Brunell in 1996. Not only has no Jaguars player won an MVP -- no Jacksonville player has ever received an MVP vote. Lawrence could change that this year.

"It's certainly seems like [Lawrence] has picked up where he left off at the end of the season and carried that through the entire offseason, not necessarily [just] training camp," Jaguars offensive coordinator Press Taylor told reporters Wednesday. "It feels like we're light years ahead as an offense than we were at this time last year."

Jacksonville is -4.5 for Week 1 at Indianapolis. The SportsLine Projection Model has Lawrence throwing for 240 yards, 1.7 TDs and 0.54 INTs.

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