Super Bowl 55 betting strategies: The Dos and Don'ts of wagering on Chiefs vs. Bucs from an accomplished expert

To understand the present, it is crucial to study the past.

Fifty-four editions of Super Bowls in the books provide a helpful history lesson as we sort through wagering options for the mouth-watering matchup between Kansas City and Tampa Bay in Super Bowl 55 on Sunday, Feb. 7, at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Fla. Kickoff is set for 6:30 p.m. ET on CBS. 

Here are the current William Hill Sportsbook odds for Chiefs vs. Buccaneers in Super Bowl 55: 

Drawing from yesteryear, here are three dos and three don'ts to serve as guideposts for choosing our bets. There is no such thing as a sure thing, but factoring in these half-dozen tips might help us turn a profit.

Do … think quarterback for Most Valuable Player, even though the odds are short on Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady. As rules changes and strategy have heightened the role of the QB, the position has claimed 10 of the last 14 MVP awards. Two other recipients were linebackers, but a projected shootout reduces the chances of any defensive player. The other two were pass-catchers who gained 131 and 141 yards. The Chiefs' Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce are capable of approaching those lofty numbers, so they are the logical alternatives to the QBs.

Don't … bet on a slight underdog if you are skeptical about its likelihood of winning straight-up. Favorites have taken two-thirds of past Super Bowls outright. In the LV, the underdog (Tampa Bay) is receiving a field goal. Only one of the previous title games has been decided by one or two points, while three was the margin of victory in seven of them. So, before siding with the Bucs, feel confident that they will win on the scoreboard.

Do … research before making a "musical" wager. Video and data can assist us just as reliably as football statistics. For the National Anthem performers, find clips and put a stopwatch to them. (With this year's duo, Jazmine Sullivan and Eric Church, her rendition from 2014 can be found on YouTube.) Examine whether the artists tend to speed up or slow down cover versions of songs. Regarding prop bets on the halftime show's songs, check the website Setlist.FM to get a feel for the frequency of artists' tunes played in concert. It compiles stats of songs delivered, broken down by year. Also, expect a new offering in the set. Musicians are eager to promote a recent or upcoming record/CD, and The Weeknd should be no exception.

Don't . . . pay attention to the finalists' regular season records. Only two with the superior record have prevailed in the prior 15 Super Bowls. (The Patriots and the Eagles carried the same ledger into SB LII.) In one of the two exceptions, the Falcons frittered away a massive lead. The Chiefs might win, but their better record — 14-2, compared to the Bucs' 11-5 -- is irrelevant.

Do . . . consider a moneyline wager on an underdog in lieu of taking the points. Tight games happen less often than expected; 61 percent of the Super Bowls have been determined by double digits. There is more value in playing the Bucs to win outright at odds of up to +150 as in receiving three points at -110.

Don't . . . bother with prop bets such as the coin flip that are determined by mere chance. Your chances of winning are 50/50, yet you are paying a 10 percent vig. Stick with wagers in which odds are tilted in your favor.

We have about 15 seconds remaining on the clock, so here are a pair of bonus quickies before the final gun sounds to end this article.

Do . . . suspend your New Year's resolution to avoid less-than-healthy foods during the Super Bowl and pig out.

Don't . . . let your wagers distract you from enjoying the last meaningful football game in more than seven months. 

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