SportsLine Projection Model not as optimistic as oddsmakers on Bucs with Tom Brady

When NFL free agency officially opens Wednesday, Tom Brady will be joining an NFC team for the first time in his career, signing with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. It's frankly the first time in their franchise history the Bucs will have a true franchise quarterback. Back before the 2008 season when Green Bay traded Brett Favre, the Bucs -- who thought they had him -- were runners-up to the New York Jets. That's about as close as the Bucs have come to a franchise QB. 

No starting quarterback in NFL history has won more games than Brady, who has 219 in the regular season (another 30 in the playoffs), while no active franchise has a worse all-time winning percentage than the Bucs.

Meanwhile, former Bucs starting quarterback Jameis Winston – who obviously will be playing elsewhere in 2020 now – has the highest career interception rate among active players. Brady has the fifth-lowest in interception rate in NFL history at 1.8 percent. Brady has seven times as many 30-touchdown seasons as all the Buccaneers' QBs in the team's history.

Tampa Bay hasn't made the playoffs since 2007, the second-longest drought in the NFL behind Cleveland. Brady has five times as many playoff wins and six times as many Super Bowl victories as all Bucs quarterbacks (while with Tampa).

No, the Bucs do play the Patriots in 2020 but are scheduled to visit Foxboro in 2021. Brady will have arguably the NFL's best receiving duo at his disposal this season in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, both Pro Bowlers last year. Godwin caught 86 passes for 1,333 yards and nine scores in 14 games, while Evans had 67 catches for 1,157 yards and eight TDs in 13.

The NFL oddsmakers at William Hill now have the Bucs as +800 fourth-favorites to win the NFC title for the second time in franchise history. Tampa had been +1200. On the odds to win the Super Bowl – which Tampa hosts next February – the Bucs moved from +2500 to +1400. Obviously, the Chargers are the big losers here. 

However, the SportsLine Projection Model only gives Tampa Bay a win total of 7.9 with Brady and a 0.5 percent chance of winning the Super Bowl.