Patriots 2023 NFL futures odds: Huge action on New England Over 7.5 wins, to make playoffs in crucial season for Mac Jones

The New England Patriots have missed the playoffs in two of the past three seasons, which is equal to the amount of times they failed to play extra football when Tom Brady was on the team. The jury is still out on New Engalnd's third-year quarterback Mac Jones, and there's no safety net behind him in 2023. Yet despite a question mark at the most important position in sports and a very tough schedule, no NFL team is taking heavier Over win total action at BetMGM than New England, which is set at 7.5 victories.

Now that Aaron Rodgers is with the Jets, New England easily has the worst quarterback situation in the AFC East with Jones, whose numbers were pretty much worse across the board last year compared to his 2021 rookie season. Perhaps an upgrade in offensive coordinators to Bill O'Brien from Matt Patricia will help fix Jones, but he's not in the class of Rodgers, Josh Allen or Tua Tagovailoa.

Coach Bill Belichick still hasn't shut the door on backup Bailey Zappe, the 2022 fourth-rounder, as a possible contender for the top job in training camp. Zappe was 2-0 as a starter last year and finished with a QB rating of 100.9 in his four games. Jones was 6-8 as the starer with an 84.8 rating. The Pats did lose leading receiver Jakobi Meyers to Las Vegas, but signed former Chiefs receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster and are reportedly still in the running to sign former Pro Bowl wideout DeAndre Hopkins. His decision should come soon with teams reporting to camp in a few weeks.

By opponents' combined winning percentage from 2022, New England's 2023 schedule ranks as the third toughest. Its foes were 156-128-3 (.549) a year ago. Sharp Football Analysis ranks schedules by opposing teams' projected betting win totals, and by that metric the Patriots have the toughest slate.

They are 4.5-point underdogs for Week 1 at home vs. reigning NFC champion Philadelphia. New England will honor Brady in a special halftime ceremony. The last time the Patriots kicked off the season at home against an NFC team was in 2000. New England hosts Miami in Week 2, visits Rodgers and the Jets in Week 3, and then visits the Cowboys in Week 4, so it's likely the Pats aren't favored in a game until Week 5 at home vs. New Orleans.

The Patriots also are taking among the heaviest action at BetMGM to make the playoffs at +240. Only Denver at +200 is taking a bigger Yes lean. 

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