NFL Week 5: Saints battling recent history as favorite over Buccaneers

The New Orleans Saints are a very different team without Drew Brees under center but, with the future Hall of Fame quarterback still sidelined for Week 5, Sean Payton's team will be forced to operate in limited fashion once again. In the match-up against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Saints currently operate as 3-point home favorites but, while that is usually a positive descriptor when it comes to on-field success, a few trends lean against New Orleans. 

New Orleans is just 1-5 against the spread in the last six home games and the Saints are a dismal 0-6 against the spread in their last six contests as a betting favorite. It is worth noting that four of those six ATS losses ended with on-the-field wins, including a Week 1 victory over the Houston Texans in 2019, but the Saints haven't lived up to the point spread expectation in the recent past. 

As noted previously, New Orleans isn't as dynamic with Teddy Bridgewater as the starting quarterback and that was on full display in their narrow Week 4 win over the Dallas Cowboys. The defense stepped up in a big way, though, and the Saints will be reliant on that unit again this time around, especially when considering the type of offensive explosion that the Bucs put together a week ago. 

Brees will return at some point in the middle of the season and, with that in mind, the Saints remain at 12-1 to win the Super Bowl. For this week, though, the line movement has gone against the home favorite, moving from a consensus opening number of 6.5 to the current figure of 3, and it is easy to see why that might be the case when examining recent results. 

So who should you pick in every Week 5 NFL game? And what teams will deliver huge upsets this week? Join SportsLine now to get every pick from the model that would have won over 96 percent of CBS office pool leagues last season, plus find out what home favorite is in for the shock of a lifetime.