NFL Week 10: Weather forecast hugely dropping totals odds in Texans vs. Browns and Jaguars vs. Packers

In betting NFL totals this year, the Over is crushing (55 percent) because it has been the highest-scoring season in league history through Week 9 – there had been 6,737 points scored with an average of 50.7 points per game, both records to this point in the season. Thus, most games each week are taking heavy leans to the Over, but there are two Sunday taking huge leans to the Under at William Hill sportsbook in large part due to expected weather conditions: Texans at Browns and Jaguars at Packers.

Checking Weather.com for Sunday's forecast in Cleveland, there's a projected high of 55 degrees with an 80 percent chance of rain, and here's the biggie: Winds SW at 25 to 35 mph and occasional gusts over 50 mph. That total has plummeted from an open of 54 at William Hill to 49. A whopping 94 percent of all wagers on the total are on the Under and 60 percent of tickets sold. The Texans and Browns are both 5-3 on the Over-Under this season. 

(Note: The Browns announced Friday a player had tested positive for COVID-19 and their facility was shut down to perform contact tracing. Obviously, it's too early to say if that may affect Sunday's game or whom the player is.) 

As for Green Bay on Sunday, highs are forecast to be 40 degrees with 70 percent chance of rain. Winds W at 25 to 35 mph with occasional gusts over 40 mph. Thus, that total vs. the Jaguars has dropped from an open of 53 to 50 with 95 percent of all money wagered on the Under and 54 percent of tickets sold. The Jags and Packers are both 5-3 on the Over-Under this season.

Those are the only Week 10 games where the lean is on the Under in both tickets sold and money wagered.

"These moves are weather-related," said Nick Bogdanovich, Director of Trading for William Hill US. "Green Bay's supposed to have a bunch of wind, Cleveland a bunch of wind, both look to be nasty. With the brutal wind, that means a lot more running, hard to throw obviously. Wind is the worst when projecting the total, rain and snow doesn't mean nearly as much. The wind is the key."

On the flip side, the highest Week 10 total is Bills at Cardinals in a stellar QB showdown between dual threats and MVP candidates in Buffalo's Josh Allen and Arizona's Kyler Murray. That number has risen from an open of 53.5 to 56.5. A total of 88 percent of all money on that total is on the Over and 69 percent of tickets sold. The Bills are 6-2-1 on the Over-Under this year and Cardinals 2-6 (tied for fewest Overs with Rams).

"People are really betting Buffalo Overs this season," Bogdanovich said. "Their defense is horrific right now, and their offense is pretty darn unstoppable. They're not as blatant as Seattle, but they're definitely an Over team due to that combination."

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