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NFL playoff odds: Michael Thomas favored to post most postseason receiving yards

Numbers say the Saints receiver was far and away the league's best, and he is favored to lead all players in receiving yardage in the NFL playoffs.
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Saints wide receiver Michael Thomas set an NFL record with 149 receptions this season, so it would stand to reason that he would be expected to be productive in the postseason. And with New Orleans playing at home Sunday in an NFC Wild-Card game, there is the potential he could rack up yardage in four playoff games. That's why on the DraftKings NFL futures odds, the star wideout is the +300 favorite to lead this postseason in receiving yards.

Thomas amassed 1,725 yards this season, 331 more than the league's No. 2 wideout, the Atlanta Falcons' Julio Jones. The Saints don't have other great options at wideout, though running back Alvin Kamara (81 catches) and tight end Jared Cook (43) get their share of touches. No other New Orleans wide receiver has more than 30 receptions, so Thomas is the clear downfield option. The Saints are favored by 7.5 points against the Vikings and their average pass defense. Thomas was third in postseason receiving yardage last season with 207 despite playing in just two games.

We previously looked at the lines on rushing and passing yardage leaders in these playoffs and mentioned that bettors should pick the player likely to play in the most games. That would be four games for the eight Wild-Card teams if they were to reach the Super Bowl. Though it should be noted that no Wild-Card team has made the big game since the Green Bay Packers in 2010. The four teams with first-round byes, the Packers, Baltimore Ravens, Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers, would play a maximum of three games.

DraftKings seems to expect the 49ers and Chiefs to go deep, as San Francisco tight end George Kittle and Kansas City wideout Tyreek Hill are the second choices at +1000. Kittle had 1,053 yards on 85 catches in 14 games, while Hill played only 12 games, posting 860 yards and averaging 14.8 per catch.

Hill's teammate, tight end Travis Kelce, is at +1100, along with Green Bay primary receiver Davante Adams. Kelce was fourth in the league with 1,229 yards, while Adams had 997 in 12 games.

The New England Patriots' Julian Edelman had the most receiving yards in the postseason last year, posting 388 as his team won the Super Bowl. New England will play in the Wild-Card round for the first time since 2009, and the potential extra game makes Edelman, the offense's only true weapon, a decent choice on this prop at +1200. The Patriots are favored by five points against Tennessee.

The Saints' Cook is at +1400, along with Tyler Lockett of the Seattle Seahawks, who also will be playing on Wild-Card Weekend. Cook averaged 16.4 yards per catch and had 705 yards this season, while Lockett had 82 receptions for 1,057 yards. Seattle faces the Eagles in Philadelphia, and they are favored by 1.5 points.

Meanwhile, the Texans aren't expected to make much noise, despite being a slight favorite against the Buffalo Bills and their elite defense in the Wild-Card round Saturday. DraftKings lists Houston Pro Bowl DeAndre Hopkins a distant +2000 on this prop.

The Ravens have the NFL's best record at 14-2, but the fact that they rely heavily on the run game and can play a maximum of three games makes their receivers an iffy proposition. Tight end Mark Andrews is the top choice for Baltimore at +1600, and wideout Marquise Brown is +2500.

SportsLine Staff
SportsLine Staff

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