Hard Knocks curse? Aaron Rodgers' New York Jets taking heavy action on odds to win AFC East first time since 2002

NFL clubs will start reporting to training camps around the country in two weeks, and as of yesterday we still didn't know which team would feature on HBO's Hard Knocks show because no clubs stepped up and volunteered this year -- the first show is usually in early August. Thus, the NFL had to force one of four eligible teams to participate, and it will be Aaron Rodgers New York Jets, made official this morning. What about the so-called Hard Knocks Curse? Bettors at BetMGM don't care thus far.  

The Jets haven't made the playoffs since 2010, which is the NFL's longest drought, and also the last time they were on Hard Knocks. They haven't won the AFC East since 2002, with only Detroit and Cleveland holding a longer division title droughts in the league. The Lions last won the NFC North in 1993 and the Browns the AFC North in 1989; Las Vegas also hasn't won the AFC West since 2002.

That the NFL is picking the Jets shouldn't be a surprise. The offseason trade for four-time MVP Aaron Rodgers has put the team under a microscope. The other options were the Bears (who have never been on the show but are rebuilding), Saints (rather anonymous) and Commanders (NFL doesn't want to highlight the Dan Snyder sale). New York is a legit Super Bowl contender and is scheduled for six prime-time games on the 2023 schedule, the most allowed. Either Rodgers or Patrick Mahomes is the NFL's biggest star now that Tom Brady is retired. Getting the Chiefs on Hard Knocks was never happening.

"I know there are several teams that would love 'Hard Knocks' to be in their building. We're just not one of them," Jets coach Robert Saleh said earlier this year.  

The last thing Saleh needs is a major distraction because his job is on the line this year. A team can decline being the subject of the show if any of these three conditions apply to that team: 

• Has made the playoffs in the past two seasons
• Has a first-year head coach
• Has been featured on "Hard Knocks" in the past decade

With every team it asked having said no, the NFL also approached the Lions about doing it for a second straight year but were told no. Rodgers' Packers were never on the show. Of course, teams that have been featured on the show have historically not fared well in the regular season.

• 2001 Ravens: 10-6, lost in Divisional Round
• 2002 Cowboys: 5-11
• 2007 Chiefs: 4-12
• 2008 Cowboys: 9-7
• 2009 Bengals: 10-6, lost in Wild-Card Round
• 2010 Jets: 11-5, lost in AFC Championship Game (furthest of any HN team)
• 2012 Dolphins: 7-9
• 2013 Bengals: 11-5, lost in Wild-Card Round
• 2014 Falcons: 6-10
• 2015 Texans: 9-7, lost in Wild-Card Round
• 2016: Rams: 4-12
• 2017 Bucs: 5-11
• 2018 Browns: 7-8-1
• 2019 Raiders: 7-9
• 2020 Rams: 10-6, lost in Divisional Round
• 2020 Chargers: 7-9
• 2021 Cowboys: 12-5, lost in Wild-Card Round
• 2022 Lions: 9-8

No team has ever appeared on the main Hard Knocks – now there is also an in-season one – and reached the Super Bowl. Just seven teams have made the playoffs that year, most recently Dallas in 2021. The Jets are +250 second favorites at BetMGM to win the AFC East but are taking the highest handle (29.6%) and most tickets (27.9%). To make the postseason, Gang Green is -150 with No at +125.

This would be the second time the Jets would be profiled. They were featured in 2010, which was one of the best Hard Knocks seasons thanks in large part to the gregarious Rex Ryan, who was then the team's head coach. There was also the Darrelle Revis contract holdout and cornerback Antonio Cromartie attempting (and failing) to name all nine of his children. That 2010 Jets team is the only club to appear on Hard Knocks and reach the conference title game in the same season.

The Jets open the preseason in the Hall of Fame Game on Aug. 3 in Canton against Cleveland. Rodgers surely will not make his debut in that game, but it's one more added bonus for New York on the show: One extra exhibition game and the ability to report to camp earlier than the rest of the league (other than the Browns). The Jets haven't released their 2023 training camp schedule yet, but it should be available any day now.

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