Ezekiel Elliott Fantasy football ranking: 2020 outlook, projections, ADP, value, predictions, stats

2019 marked the first season of Ezekiel Elliott's career in which he didn't lead the NFL in rushing yards per game. Zeke's touchdown totals allowed him to still finish as the RB5 in Fantasy, but there were certainly some red flags shown last year. Where should he be in your 2020 Fantasy football rankings, and what Ezekiel Elliott Fantasy football outlook can you expect?

The Cowboys replaced longtime Head Coach Jason Garrett with Mike McCarthy this offseason. McCarthy kept offensive coordinator Kellen Moore on staff, and the offense is expected to be much more pass-heavy under their tutelage than what we saw under Garrett. The change in offensive scheme coupled with the first-round investment put into star wideout CeeDee Lamb has many speculating that Elliott's workload might be down a bit in 2020.

The 2020 Ezekiel Elliott Fantasy football value remains strong, as he's set for another 300-carry campaign. He's undoubtedly a first-round candidate in most formats, but how high should he be in your 2020 Fantasy football rankings? Here's what you need to know:

So which players are poised for breakouts, which sleepers do you need to jump on, and which busts should you avoid at all costs in your Fantasy football league? Join SportsLine now to get early 2020 Fantasy football rankings, plus see which WR is going to come out of nowhere to crack the top 10, all from the model that out-performed experts big time last season.

Ezekiel Elliott Fantasy ADP & ranking (via SportsLine's projection model)

No. 10.9 ADP
No. 3 RB (non-PPR)
No. 3 RB (PPR)

Ezekiel Elliott Fantasy projections (via SportsLine's projection model) 

307 carries, 1,307 rushing yards, 10.2 rushing TDs; 
81.5 targets, 62 receptions, 484 receiving yards, 2.44 receiving TDS
250 Fantasy points (non-PPR); 312 (PPR)

Ezekiel Elliott 2020 Fantasy outlook 

Running backs who sees the type of workload Ezekiel Elliott does on the ground are quite uncommon these days, and there's a chance that Zeke's true workhorse days are behind him. In Jason Garrett's 10 seasons as a head coach, he ranked inside the top half of the league in rushing attempts six times. Since Zeke arrived in 2016, Garrett's offenses have finished first, fifth, tenth, and eighth in rush attempts per game. New head coach McCarthy's offenses ranked 29th, 27th, and 32nd during that time. In his 13 seasons as a head coach, McCarthy ranked inside the top 15 in rushing attempts four times. He never had an offense that ranked inside the top-10 in rush attempts.

The play calling could look different when in the red zone too. Dallas ran at the fourth-highest rate when in the red zone in 2019, but Green Bay's offenses under McCarthy were quite pass-happy when in scoring distance. During the seasons we have the data available, Green Bay had the league's third, 11th, and second-highest pass-to-rush ratios in the red zone.

Of course, having talents such as Aaron Rodgers or Ezekiel Elliott can have a huge impact on how a coach decides to run his offense. But McCarthy has some incredible passing game weapons at his disposal in Dallas, and he seems less likely to under-utilize them than Garrett.

It's possible that Dallas will remain one of the most run-heavy teams in the league, but seems less likely that Zeke remains among the elite tier of Fantasy RB who are heavily involved as both a rusher and receiver. After being targeted 95 times in 2018, Elliott saw his target total fall to 71 in his first season in Kellen Moore's offense. Moore put more of a priority on downfield passes, which was evidenced in Dak Prescott's career-high 12.8 percent deep ball rate in 2019. It's possible that we never see Elliott come close to the 100-target mark while playing in Moore's offense.

None of this takes away from Elliott's bid for a first-round selection in Fantasy drafts. He should still be heavily involved in one of the highest-scoring offenses in the NFL, and he has a proven track record as a Fantasy producer that almost no one can match. It's just important to consider the changes that Dallas' offense has undergone this offseason, because a lot of what Elliott has been able to accomplish in Fantasy has been predicated on a truly unique type of usage that may be diminished in 2020. I'd still select Zeke in the top-five, but I do prefer the upside of Alvin Kamara and Clyde Edwards-Helaire in any PPR format.