Deshaun Watson to Browns odds changes: Cleveland now favored to win AFC North, jumps to 16/1 on Super Bowl 57 futures

There are four teams that have never played in a Super Bowl: Cleveland Browns, Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars in the AFC and Detroit Lions in the NFC. Only the Browns had a realistic chance of changing that for the 2022 season about 24 hours ago, but they have become legit contenders following a stunning trade for Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson. The Browns are now seventh co-favorites at +1600 to win Super Bowl 57 at Caesars Sportsbook. They had been +4000.

It was thought Watson was choosing between the Atlanta Falcons and the New Orleans Saints – in fact, on Thursday the Browns were "told" they were out of the running. Yet Cleveland QB Baker Mayfield demanded a trade anyways -- he's obviously a goner now, most likely to Indianapolis. Early reports are that the Browns get Watson and a fifth-round pick (not clear what year) and that the Texans receive three first-round picks (certainly this year's being one), a third-round pick and a fourth-round pick.

Money talks in the NFL, and Watson agreed to waive his no-trade clause and head to Cleveland because of a new contract worth five years and $230 million -- fully guaranteed. That's unprecedented in the NFL for length/money to be guaranteed.

Cleveland is now the +180 favorite to win the AFC North at Caesars Sportsbook (had been +350), a division it hasn't won since 1989 when it was called the AFC Central. For the conference title, the Browns are +900 fifth-favorites (were +1800).

All those odds likely would be shorter, but a suspension of a least four games is expected from Commissioner Roger Goodell, and that may be on the short end. It doesn't matter that a Houston grand jury declined to indict Watson following allegations of sexual misconduct stemming from massage therapy sessions. He still faces several civil lawsuits, and the NFL has proven whether a person is charged with a crime or not is irrelevant when it comes to suspensions under the personal conduct policy. Tom Brady got four games for Deflategate!

If you are wondering, Cleveland does visit Houston this season as well as Atlanta and Carolina (another top suitor). The Saints come to Cleveland. And we don't want to get ahead of ourselves regarding Mayfield, but the Browns don't face the Colts.

As for the SportsLine Projection Model (see below), Cleveland jumps from 8.3 wins to 9.5 with Watson, but that's assuming a full 17 games for Deshaun. Don't forget: The Browns previously had traded for Cowboys Pro Bowl receiver Amari Cooper. 

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