Derek Carr next team free agency odds: Saints, Panthers, Titans favorites to sign Pro Bowl quarterback after release from Raiders

While NFL free agency doesn't officially start until the beginning of the new league year on March 15, players who are released before that date can sign ASAP. That will include Las Vegas Raiders four-time Pro Bowl quarterback Derek Carr, who will be released by the team at some point today before his contract would fully guarantee him $40.4 million for the 2023 season. SportsLine offers odds on Carr's next team, and there are three suitors alone in the NFC South.

Carr spent some time in New Orleans last week – Saints coach Dennis Allen was the Raiders' coach for the first four games of Carr's 2014 rookie season before being fired – and New Orleans and Las Vegas had the framework of a trade in place for Carr, but his contract was an issue as the Saints are way over the 2023 salary cap. Carr's no-trade clause gave him power to veto any deal.

The Raiders embarrassed Carr when they benched him at the end of the 2022 regular season, so Carr was going to veto any trade Las Vegas had in place (the Saints were only team to make an official offer). Why should Carr help his soon-to-be former team? Moreover, he can pick his destination as a free agent.

Carr clearly felt comfortable in the Big Easy, and the Saints could contend in the watered-down NFC with a competent Carr. New Orleans has a very good defense and some excellent skill position talent in running back Alvin Kamara and young wideout Chris Olave. It's not clear whether we can include veteran WR Michael Thomas, the former NFL Offensive Player of the Year, considering his recent injury history and the fact the Saints likely will cut him for salary cap reasons (but could then re-sign).  

New Orleans, which was in the Deshaun Watson trade sweepstakes last year, is unlikely to bring back either Jameis Winston or Andy Dalton.

The NFC South is certainly quite winnable for the Saints -- it might only take eight wins -- with Tom Brady having retired and the Falcons and Panthers both also having QB questions. Carolina and Tampa Bay will both look at Carr as well.

The Panthers have a new offensive-minded head coach in the highly respected Frank Reich and a new quarterbacks coach in Josh McCown. Matt Corral, who missed his rookie season with a Lisfranc injury, and Jacob Eason are the only QBs Carolina currently rosters.

Whether the Buccaneers go after Carr (and how intensely they do so) may depend on whether Tampa Bay thinks it can still contend sans Brady with an aging roster. If the Bucs think it's reboot time, they may want to get a look at young Kyle Trask under center. Jimmy Garoppolo has been linked to Tampa. Some QBs might be leery of trying to fill Brady's shoes. 

Tennessee has a playoff-caliber roster and reportedly could release veteran Ryan Tannehill this offseason. His play regressed in 2022, and he finished the season on injured reserve with an ankle injury. Malik Willis, a third-round rookie, struggled mightily in limited action.

It will be interesting to see if the Jets pursue Carr because that should give us an indication of how confident New York is in its efforts to trade for Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers is favored currently to replace Carr in Las Vegas. One concern about Carr in New York: His record in cold-weather games. The California native is 2-10 in his NFL career with a total QBR of 33.6 (44th out of 47 qualified QBs), a 58.0% completion percentage and a 14-14 touchdown-to-interception ratio in games where the temperature is 40 degrees or colder. 

Via SportsLine oddsmakers: Which team will Derek Carr sign with?

• Saints +300
• Panthers +350
• Titans +400
• Jets +600
• Bucs +750
• Commanders +900
• Patriots +1500
• Packers +1800

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