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Colts 2021 NFL odds: Carson Wentz out 5-12 weeks due to foot surgery; Jacob Eason starting QB for now but trade for veteran (Nick Foles?) possible

Colts starting quarterback Carson Wentz will indeed have foot surgery and miss anywhere from 5-12 weeks.

The NFL regular season starts in just under six weeks. The Indianapolis Colts announced Monday that starting quarterback Carson Wentz will indeed have foot surgery instead of trying rest and rehab and that Wentz will miss anywhere from 5-12 weeks, meaning he's obviously in heavy doubt at least for Week 1 against the visiting Seahawks. The Colts had been 2.5-point favorites on the NFL odds but many books now have Seattle at -2.5. Some have taken the game off the board temporarily. Presumably, second-year Jacob Eason would start Sept. 12 unless the Colts trade for a veteran like Nick Foles.

Wentz took part in just two practices before being held out of the Colts' third training camp session last Friday with the foot injury. The team and QB agonized over whether he should have surgery, with initially the plan for rest and rehab, but obviously something changed as Wentz will have surgery today to remove a piece of broken bone from his foot.

The Colts opted for the "most predictable outcome," according to Coach Frank Reich. A 12-week recovery period would have Wentz making his Colts debut in mid-October. He played a full season only twice thanks to injuries with the Eagles before being traded this offseason.

Indy's first five games of the season are against teams -- Seahawks, Rams, Titans, Dolphins and Ravens -- that went a combined 54-26 last season.

"(Five-12 weeks is) a big range," Reich said. "There's no way to know where you'll be until you get into rehab. We're optimistic it'll be at the front end but the reality is you can be anywhere on that spectrum. This is the type of injury you don't have to be pain-free. I know Carson can play with pain. The best-case scenario is the pain leaves early."

Eason was a 2020 fourth-round pick out of the University of Washington who didn't take a snap last season – there was no preseason. He has been working with the first team in practice. The Colts also have sixth-round rookie Sam Ehlinger and recently signed journeyman Brett Hundley.

Foles would make a ton of sense because he's currently third team on the Bears, who would likely have to eat some of his salary for Indy to consider a trade. If the Bears can trade Foles, they would free up $4 million in salary cap space with $2.66 million in dead cap. Reich was the Eagles' offensive coordinator in 2017 when Foles took over for an injured Wentz late in the regular season and led Philadelphia to its only Super Bowl title.

Guys like the Raiders' Marcus Mariota and Jaguars' Gardner Minshew also have been mentioned as Colts trade possibilities. Foles would cost much less than any of them. 

Caesars Sportsbook is yet to change other Colts futures. The have a win total of 10 (although Under is now -130 favorite) and are -210 to make the playoffs and +175 to miss. The SportsLine Projection Model, though, hugely devalues the Colts as can be seen directly below.

COLTS                                  WIN        WIN%           DIVISION         PLAYOFF        CONF          CHAMP
Wentz healthy10.260.00%49.70%73.80%12.40%7.00%
w/o Wentz 6 games9.857.60%42.50%66.00%9.40%5.40%
Difference-0.4-2.40%-7.20%-7.80%-3.00%-1.60%

Which Fantasy Football sleepers, breakouts and busts should you target and fade? And which QB shocks the NFL with a top-five performance? Join SportsLine now to get 2021 Fantasy Football cheat sheets for every single position, all from the model that called Josh Allen's huge season.

Matt Severance
Matt SeveranceSeverance Pays

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