Chiefs vs. Chargers NFL Week 18 odds: History points to Andy Reid resting Kansas City starters with AFC playoff seed locked

Since Patrick Mahomes became the Kansas City Chiefs' starting quarterback in the 2018 season, the Chiefs have played on Wild Card Weekend just once but will do so again in this season's playoffs. The AFC West champions are locked into the conference's No. 3 seed. Coach Andy Reid hasn't said yet whether he will rest any starters for Week 18 game against the eliminated Los Angeles Chargers, but Reid's history says he will. Clearly the oddsmakers think so too, as the Chargers are 2-point favorites on the SportsLine consensus.

Kansas City's 25-17 win Sunday over Cincinnati, combined with Buffalo's triumph over New England, locked the Chiefs into the No. 3 seed. They'll host the No. 6 seed on Wild Card Weekend. The sixth seed is currently the Bills, but they would win the AFC East with a victory in Miami in Week 18. If Buffalo does win, it earns the No. 2 over Kansas City because of a head-to-head tiebreaker. The Dolphins are so banged up that they're underdogs against Buffalo, so the most likely scenario is Miami at Kansas City on Wild Card Weekend.

The last time the Chiefs (+425 to repeat as AFC champions) were in this scenario was Week 17 of the 2020 season when they had the AFC's top seed clinched and rested starters at home against these Chargers, who won 38-21. That Los Angeles team also had a healthy Justin Herbert, who threw for 302 yards and three scores, but Herbert was lost to injury for the rest of this season a few weeks ago. Easton Stick has been starting in his place and the Chargers are also playing under a lame-duck coaching staff with big changes on the way this offseason.

Chad Henne started that meaningless game for Kansas City at quarterback. Mahomes' current backup is Blaine Gabbert, who has attempted five passes all season. The former No. 10 overall pick has a career NFL starting record of 13-35 but hasn't started a game since 2018, when he was with Tennessee.

Reid and the Chiefs were also locked into their playoff seed entering the 2017 regular-season finale, so he rested QB Alex Smith and others, giving a rookie Mahomes his first NFL start. Kansas City won in Denver.

Might Reid let a few of his key players take the field? Tight end Travis Kelce is 16 yards shy of becoming the seventh player ever with eight straight 1,000-yard receiving seasons. Mahomes is 84 yards shy of the Kansas City passing yardage career record (Len Dawson: 28,507) and two touchdowns shy of setting the record for most passing TDs in a QB's first seven seasons (Dan Marino: 220). Defensive end Chris Jones has 9.5 sacks and gets a $1.25 million bonus if he reaches 10.

"If Coach Reid decides to rest us, I'll more than likely take the rest. I can use a week off," Jones said. "I feel a few nicks and bruises. And I'm quite sure our team could use it."

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