49ers' first loss of season affects their SportsLine NFL futures simulations
Do the members of the 1972 Miami Dolphins still celebrate when the last unbeaten team in the NFL loses each year? If they do, it happened late Monday night as the unbeaten San Francisco 49ers were knocked off at home in a thrilling game against NFC West rival Seattle, 27-24 in overtime.
The Niners had a chance to win with 2:28 left in overtime but rookie kicker Chase McLaughlin absolutely gagged on a 47-yard field goal. He had just been signed off the street due to an injury to Robbie Gould. McLaughlin missed the uprights so wide left it ended up in the tunnel in the corner of the stadium. Seattle would eventually win it on a 42-yard field goal from Jason Myers to make the NFC West a race.
San Francisco now is down to just a 64 percent favorite to win the division on the SportsLine Projection Model – Seattle hosts the Niners in Week 17 – and its simulated percentage to win the Super Bowl went from 18.3 percent to 14.4. The Seahawks went from having a 4.9 percent to win the NFC to an 8.6 percent chance but Seattle still has just a 3.24 percent chance to win the Super Bowl.
New Orleans was an even bigger upset victim in Week 10, losing as a 14-point home favorite on the NFL odds to the Atlanta Falcons, 26-9. It was the first time since 2003 that a team with a record of 7-1 or better lost to a team with a record of 1-7 or worse. And it was the first time in 18 years that a team on a losing streak of at least six games beat a team on a winning streak of at least six games. That defeat dropped the Saints' odds to win the Super Bowl from 19.5 to 16.6, but that's best among NFC teams. New Orleans has an NFC-best 33.1 percent chance of taking the conference title.
New England was on the bye in Week 10 and has a 28.5 percent chance of winning the Super Bowl. Baltimore is up to 14.2 percent after destroying the Cincinnati Bengals. The Ravens had been at 8 percent entering Week 10. While the SportsLine Projection Model has five NFC teams finishing with double-digit wins, it simulates only the Patriots (13.3) and Ravens (11.5) doing so in the AFC.
Will the Bengals finish 0-16? Their chances are around 4 percent, and the Model projects 2.4 victories.
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