It took a while for the Bills offense to get going against the Dolphins last week, but they were ultimately able to cover the spread. While that appeared to be a pretty easy defensive matchup for Buffalo, no defense is an easier matchup than the Jaguars, who managed to somehow give up 31 points on just 229 yards to Seattle last week. I don't think the yardage number is any indication the Jacksonville defense is getting better, so I expect a ton of scoring for the Bills here. Many teams would run the ball in the second half up big, but that's not Buffalo's M.O. If the Jags can put even two TDs on the board, this should get Over.

Don't let Josh Allen's lower-than-normal performance against Miami last week fool you, he didn't particularly play well against them in Week 2 when Buffalo won 35-0. Miami runs man coverage 49% of the time, highest in the NFL, which hasn't been Allen's strong suit. Expect a bounce back Sunday in the warm Jacksonville weather where the deep balls will be flying. Couple that with its defense and a green light to swarm Trevor Lawrence. When pressured this season, Lawrence has a completion percentage in the 40's and twice as many interceptions as touchdowns. Buffalo's defense should provide excellent field position for Josh Allen to strike early and often. Also, Jacksonville does a decent job defensively of pressuring the QB, however they have the 2nd-worst sack rate in the NFL. A nightmare against a QB who can run.