Celtics vs. 76ers Thursday NBA Eastern Conference Game 6 odds, trends: Slight spread lean on Boston to force Game 7, huge action on Joel Embiid point total

The Philadelphia 76ers will take the court Thursday as the betting favorites for the first time this season to win the NBA's Eastern Conference – currently +100 at BetMGM – as they can eliminate the Boston Celtics in Game 6 of their semifinal playoff series. While bettors at the sportsbook are crushing Philly's Joel Embiid to have another 30-point game, Boston is taking a slight lean on the spread as a 2.5-point road favorite. Click here for model picks.

Over the past two postseasons, the Celtics are 6-1 after home losses and 3-1 when those games are on the road. That includes a Game 6 clinching victory in Atlanta last round. The Celtics opened at -1.5 at the book for Thursday's game and are now -2.5 with 50% of the bets and 54% of the money coming in on them against the spread. The total has dropped two points to 212.5 despite 83% of the bets and 80% of the money landing on the Over. At +115 on the money line, the Sixers are taking 65% of the bets and 59% of the handle.

Philadelphia's shocking 115-103 upset in Boston as an 8-point underdog Tuesday gave the Sixers the 3-2 series lead. It also thrust them into the favored role in the East, with the Celtics now +220. Philly and Denver had been co-favorites at +300 to win the NBA title, but the Nuggets are now at that price alone and the Sixers are +340. Denver is at worst guaranteed a home Game 7 in its Western Conference semifinal series against the Suns, but can eliminate them in Game 6 tonight in the desert. A Game 7 of the Sixers-Celtics series would be Sunday in Boston.

If the Celtics can get 30 points each from Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown tonight, history says they will win. Boston is 23-1 (.958) all-time, including the playoffs, when they each score 30. That's the best winning percentage of any duo in league history with a minimum of 20 games played. Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen did it 20 times and were 18-2 (.900). Tatum and Brown did combine for 60 in Game 5, but Brown didn't get to the 30-point mark.

Boston was in a similar situation in the 2022 Eastern Conference Finals against the Bucks: It was tied 2-2, the Celtics lost at home in Game 5, but went to Milwaukee and won Game 6 before then taking Game 7 back at home.

Embiid is listed as questionable tonight, which tells you how ridiculous the NBA's injury report can be. The MVP is all but surely playing and has three straight games of at least 30 points. That's two shy of the franchise playoff record of five by Allen Iverson, set in 2001. Embiid is set at over/under 29.5 points, and 99% of the action is on the Over.

The two other most popular player props so far, interestingly enough, are on Celtics sixth man Malcolm Brogdon: Over 21.5 points + assists (-115) and Over 14.5 points. He was pretty quiet in Game 5, but is averaging 16.7 points and 3.4 assists in the series. 

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