UFC Fight Night Overeem vs. Harris odds: Big upset if main event goes distance

It has been a spectacular seven days for UFC fans and bettors with organization president Dana White grabbing the American sports spotlight in a brilliant marketing move by staging three cards on three different nights from Jacksonville, Fla. The last of the three is Saturday, and the main event features a heavyweight bout between Alistair Overeem (45-18, 1 NC) and Walt Harris (13-7, 1 NC). Both are ranked Top 10 in the division with Harris a -170 favorite on the William Hill sportsbook moneyline odds and Overeem at +145.

We'll let the experts pick the winner of this bout, which is likely to start around 11:30 p.m. ET from VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena with no fans in attendance. Hard to root against Harris as he hasn't fought since July 2019 because his stepdaughter was kidnapped and killed last October in their native Alabama.

Harris (ranked ninth in division) and Overeem (ranked eighth) were to fight in December, but Harris pulled out of that in early November to help in the search for Aniah Blanchard, who was a 19-year-old college student. A suspect has been charged with capital murder and kidnapping.

Because this is the main event, it's scheduled for five rounds but seems highly unlikely to go the distance. Here are various William Hill moneyline odds on the bout:

• Over-Under 1.5 Rounds: Over -150, Under +110
• Over-Under 2.5 Rounds: Under -175, Over +125
• Will fight go distance: No -450, Yes +300
• Harris to win by KO/TKO/DQ: -110
• Harris by decision: +750
• Harris by submission: +2500
• Overeem by KO/TKO/DQ: +250
• Overeem by decision: +600
• Overeem by submission: +1000

In his 64 combined professional MMA bouts, the 39-year-old Dutchman Overeem has gone the distance just eight times and not since a three-round majority decision over Fabricio Werdum in July 2017. The average fight time for "the Demolition Man" is 7:01. His only fight to even reach Round 5 was last time out vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik when Overeem was knocked out with four seconds left in the fifth round while leading on all three judges' cards.

Meanwhile, the 36-year-old Harris has won all 13 of his career bouts by KO/TKO and has seen only four of his 20 fights go the distance. The average fight time for "the Big Ticket" is 6:35, and he has never gone past three rounds (that's partly due to scheduling by the UFC as non-main events are scheduled for three).

No surprise, then, on the "will fight go the distance" prop that no is a heavy favorite. 

Who wins Harris vs. Overeem? And how exactly does each fight end? Get detailed picks on every bout on the UFC Fight Night: Harris vs. Overeem card, all from the accomplished expert who's up almost $19,000, and find out.