Lefty Jordan Montgomery starts for the Cardinals and he's apparently had a big impact on the line. The Cubs are the better team and are the home underdogs here. They have won four of five and are desperately trying to hang in contention in order to avoid a sell off. The one time the Cubs saw Montgomery this season, they tagged him for his worst start of the season (5 IP, 7 H, 6 ER). It wasn't an outlier. The Cubs have hit .284/.355/.456 against lefty starters this season, compared to .238/.319/.381 against righties.

The Cardinals appear to have the starting pitching edge with Jordan Montgomery opposing Jameson Taillon, but my model disagrees with this price. In Montgomery's last outing at Wrigley Field on May 10, the Cubs pounded him for two homers and six earned runs in five innings. The Cubs are winning 52 percent of simulations Sunday as they seek a third straight victory.