This opened at Padres -125 but is now -155 because I'm sure everyone is backing them with the return of Fernando Tatis Jr. And he's a stud, no doubt about it, but I hardly trust Dads pitcher Michael Wacha (2-1, 6.06 ERA). He had one very good start vs. Atlanta but has been roughed up in his other two. Ryne Nelson (1-0, 3.71 ERA) is another of Arizona's good young stable of pitchers. This is simply a value play -- SD should not be this heavily favored on the road against a first-place team with this pitching matchup no matter how good Tatis Jr. is.