So, tell me a team is going to hold its opponent to just two runs and I'd take the runline on the non-two-run team every day of the week for quite a bit of $$$. Natch, the Cards runline lost yesterday at +1.5 despite holding the Phils to a pair of runs because they were shut out and Alec Bohm suddenly became Mike Schmidt. I was quite peeved at that result. Well, I'm going back to St. Louis today even though the Cards are struggling at the plate. Phils pitcher Kyle Gibson is 0-2 with a 6.34 ERA on the road and the team has used arguably its two best relievers, Seranthony Dominquez and Brad Hand ("but isn't this our time Mr. Hand?"), in two straight games so they likely aren't available. JT Realmuto is also out of the lineup. Cards pitcher Dakota Hudson is 4-1 with a 3.03 ERA at home and the bullpen is fully available after Adam Wainwright threw a complete game Thursday.

Kyle Gibson has really struggled lately and on the road this season. He is 0-2 with a 6.34 ERA in 7 road games and he has allowed 11 ER in his last two starts. That includes 6 ER in 4 IP against the Cardinals. Dakota Hudson has been much better at home where he is 4-1 with a 3.03 ERA. He actually didn’t face the Phillies last time around, so I think that gives him an advantage. He’s been very hit or miss in terms of walks, but the Cardinals have their full bullpen available after the Adam Wainwright complete game last night. The Cardinals have seriously struggled lately but they are much better at 24-17 at home. Take the Cardinals to force a rubber game.