This will be the last ALCS game at Fenway Park before the series returns to Houston. Including the postseason, the Astros are 54-31 at home and 44-39 on the road, while Boston is 53-32 and 45-40, respectively. With the splits in mind, Game 5 becomes a must-win for the Red Sox, as winning back-to-back contests at Houston would be a tall task. Boston probably feels a bit cheated by Tuesday's umpiring, but it has done well after losses so far in the playoffs and certainly has a lot on the line. I expect the Red Sox to get it done.

Tuesday's miraculous Over certainly is one for the books, but at the end of the day, the Astros have now seen seven straight. Wednesday's Game 5 total is one-half run lower than Tuesday's, which reduces the win condition by a full run to 10. The Red Sox have lost three games in the postseason thus far, and in the games that followed the first two defeats, they scored 14 and nine runs, respectively. I expect this to be another high-scoring post-loss result for Boston, as it essentially is a must-win game. It's also worth mentioning that neither of Wednesday's starters have been that great in the postseason, and the weather at Fenway Park is conducive to a good hitting day. Take the Over.

Both offenses are good but have shown this series that they can be held down at times. The pitching is the question. Red Sox starter Chris Sale can't be trusted at this point. Tanner Houck was so valuable in the ALDS and could give the Red Sox length, however. Astros starter Framber Valdez has been terrible in the playoffs so far, but he was much better on the road this season and only allowed one run in seven innings in his last start in Fenway. If he can just give them five innings, the Astros are in great shape. I'll take the 'dog.

Chris Sale and Framber Valdez will face off for the second time this series and I honestly don’t think either will pitch very well. Both these starters were out by the third inning in Game 1, but this time the Astros won’t have Christian Javier available to take up bulk innings. The Red Sox put up 14 runs after the first time they lost this postseason and 12 runs against the Astros after the second game they lost this postseason, so the Red Sox have responded well to losses. The park shift with Framber Valdez and Chris Sale now pitching in Fenway Park should help the Red Sox too. This series is now guaranteed to go back to Houston so this is more of a must win game for the Red Sox than the Astros, take the Red Sox at home.

It would be human nature for the Astros to have a bit of a letdown after Tuesday's late comeback victory assured this series would return to Houston. In addition, the Astros' bullpen has to be completely gassed with how much it has been used in this series -- gee, Dusty Baker misusing pitchers? Yeah, as a Cubs fan I am well aware. Houston starter Framber Valdez has been shaky in his past three outings dating to the regular season. Boston has won its past four after a loss.