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I took the Under 8.5 runs but will back the Brewers at -160 on the runline (basically same price Atlanta is on moneyline, so it's simply value) because they are OVERDUE to score at least a run or two, and that might be all it takes to win ... or lose by one the way this series is going. While Brewers starting pitcher Eric Lauer is well-rested, Atlanta's Charlie Morton makes his first start on less than four days of rest since 2008. Doubt he is out there very long after 85 pitches in Game 1.
I'm sure now that I've ignored betting the total in the first three games and each one totaled just three runs that this will be a shootout since I'm going Under 8.5 runs, but the Brewers simply are not hitting -- 0-for-16 with runners in scoring position and batting .176 overall. It is expected to be Braves ace Charlie Morton on short rest but with plenty of options behind him against Milwaukee's Eric Lauer on normal rest. He went 6-2 with a 2.23 ERA over his last 15 games.
This series has gone Under in every game, and I don't think Game 4 will be any different. The Braves have clearly figured out how to pitch to the Brewers, as Milwaukee has scored in just one of the 26 innings it has gone to bat in, totaling just two runs. The Braves also have been rather quiet on the offensive side of the ball, with all of yesterday's runs coming from a single swing on a pinch-hit home run. These NLDS games have been much lower scoring than the ALDS ones, with 25 total runs in the six NL games so far, and it's not only because of the DH. I think this trend holds. Take the Under.
Both teams have been terrible with the bats, with neither team scoring more than 3 runs in a game yet and no total going over 3. I don’t see the bats waking up today, especially with the wind blowing in. Both teams will have just about all options available out of the bullpen in any sign of trouble also. Take the under.