It's difficult to bet against the Brewers' starting pitching and that's why I didn't do it in Game 1. I like the Braves to strike back in this one, though. Though he was still mostly very good, the Brewers lost 10 of Brandon Woodruff's last 14 starts. He did have a 3.45 ERA in those starts compared to 1.87 before. On the flip side, the Braves have won 10 of Max Fried's last 11 starts and he has a 1.46 ERA in there. Plus, he's left-handed and the Brewers have a number of important left-handed hitters. Finally, both teams are better on the road, so everything fits here.

As I mentioned in my writeup yesterday, both these teams actually play better on the road. The Braves had the tying run on third base yesterday before grounding out to end the game. Brandon Woodruff has pitched very well this season, but he allowed 3 ER in 5.1 IP to the Braves earlier this season. He was also 0-3 with a 4.09 ERA in September. Max Fried hasn’t faced the Brewers this season but the Brewers struggle against lefties and Fried is absolutely dealing right now. He has pitched 12 straight quality starts and he has allowed 1 ER in his last 23 IP. The Brewers were tied for 23rd in the league in wOBA against lefties and they weren’t doing much better in September ranking 22nd overall in wOBA against lefties. Take the value in the Braves.

The Brewers have not seen Max Fried since 2019 and did not score a run off him in either of his last two starts. Milwaukee is ranked No. 23 in OPS against lefthanded pitching. I love the Braves lineup against Brandon Woodruff. Dansby Swanson should have a big game. Atlanta defeated Woodruff earlier this season without Ronald Acuña Jr. The Braves are 18-10 when Fried takes the bump. I'm on Atlanta.