Who are the best bets to survive Oakmont this week?
The second major championship of the season is upon us as the golf world descends on Oakmont Country Club in Oakmont, Pennsylvania for the U.S. Open.Â
The U.S. Open is golf's toughest test year in and year out, and this year it returns to the toughest course in the rotation. Oakmont is widely regarded as the toughest course in the United States and becomes even more difficult and diabolical when placed in the hands of the USGA. The rough is deeper and thicker than anywhere else on Tour and the greens are running off the charts on the stimpmeter.
 | Open (4/11) | Current |
Jordan Spieth | 7/1 | 8/1 |
Rory McIlroy | 8/1 | 7/1 |
Jason Day | 8/1 | 13/2 |
Dustin Johnson | 15/1 | 12/1 |
Rickie Fowler | 20/1 | 25/1 |
Adam Scott | 20/1 | 30/1 |
Justin Rose | 20/1 | 25/1 |
Bubba Watson | 30/1 | 40/1 |
Hideki Matsuyama | 30/1 | 30/1 |
Henrik Stenson | 30/1 | 30/1 |
Danny Willett | 30/1 | 40/1 |
Phil Mickelson | 30/1 | 25/1 |
Louis Oosthuizen | 40/1 | 60/1 |
Brandt Snedeker | 40/1 | 60/1 |
Patrick Reed | 40/1 | 40/1 |
Brooks Koepka | 40/1 | 40/1 |
Sergio Garcia | 50/1 | 40/1 |
Matt Kuchar | 50/1 | 30/1 |
Zach Johnson | 50/1 | 60/1 |
Paul Casey | 50/1 | 60/1 |
Branden Grace | 50/1 | 30/1 |
Charl Schwartzel | 60/1 | 60/1 |
Jim Furyk | 60/1 | 80/1 |
Jimmy Walker | 60/1 | 125/1 |
Justin Thomas | 60/1 | 100/1 |
Martin Kaymer | 80/1 | 60/1 |
Kevin Kisner | 80/1 | 100/1 |
Graeme McDowell | 80/1 | 125/1 |
Lee Westwood | 80/1 | 60/1 |
J.B. Holmes | 80/1 | 60/1 |
Marc Leishman | 80/1 | 80/1 |
Bryson DeChambeau | 100/1 | 100/1 |
Matthew Fitzpatrick | 100/1 | 80/1 |
Bill Haas | 100/1 | 125/1 |
Jason Dufner | 100/1 | 100/1 |
* Odds courtesy of Westgate LV Superbook |
Unsurprisingly, the heavy favorites at Oakmont are golf's current Big Three as Jason Day (13/2), Rory McIlroy (7/1) and Jordan Spieth (8/1) sit atop the odds sheet. With a few exceptions, the U.S. Open has been won by golfers that have been at the top of their game in recent years. Jordan Spieth, Martin Kaymer, Justin Rose and Rory McIlroy are four of the last five winners, with the exception to the rule being Webb Simpson.Â
In making my picks this week, I'm looking at golfers playing well recently and who have a history of success at the U.S. Open and difficult courses.Â
My Foursome
Dustin Johnson (12/1): Dustin has yet to win on the PGA Tour this season, but has eight top 10 finishes already and has been playing spectacular golf all year. We're all well aware of his issues on Sundays at majors, but this is a guy who, despite those crushing disappointments, has finished in the top 5 at the last two U.S. Opens and has been top 10 at four of the last five majors. That breakthrough win is coming soon, and I think this week at Oakmont could be his time.Â
Justin Rose (25/1): Rose was the 2013 U.S. Open champion -- the last time a winner was over par, as is expected this week -- and he is fantastic on difficult courses. He hasn't made a PGA Tour appearance since a T19 at The Players, but his track record at tough courses speaks for itself. He has wins at Congressional, Merion, Muirfield Village and Doral, which are among the toughest courses on the PGA Tour. Rose's ball-striking is as good as there is on the PGA Tour and he's got the patience and demeanor to handle the physical and mental stress Oakmont provides.Â
Matt Kuchar (30/1): There is nobody playing better on the PGA Tour right now than Kuchar. He's finished no worse than sixth in his last four starts and has been lights out on the greens. I like taking the hot golfer, especially someone putting as well as he has, coming into Oakmont. His history at the U.S. Open isn't fantastic, but he's been T12 in back-to-back years.Â
Jason Dufner (100/1): Dufner has been playing solid but not spectacular golf recently, but of all the guys pushed further down the odds list, I like him the most. In the last four U.S. Opens, Dufner has finished T4, T4, MC and T18. That's quite the record of success, and this season he's gotten back to playing quality golf on a more consistent basis -- his last three starts have been T24, T6 and T33. If this tournament goes as expected and features high scores, Dufner has the demeanor to just steadily plod along as the rest of the field crumbles around him. I think we'll see him in one of the final few groups on Sunday with a chance at the win.Â
My DFS Roster
Dustin Johnson ($11,000): I like him even more as the star of my DFS roster than I do as my pick to win. He might fall short of the win this week, but he's a top 10 machine.Â
Justin Rose ($10,500): He's a top 10 machine in majors, like Johnson. Four top 10s in the last five majors for Rose. He shows up in a big way for these big tournaments and finds himself in contention, and I don't see that stopping this week.Â
Jason Dufner ($7,200): Dufner's been super steady all season and has historically played well at the U.S. Open. I like his value in this spot.Â
Daniel Berger ($7,200): We'll ride the hot hand a bit here with Berger, coming off his first career PGA Tour win last week. He's one of the many very talented young players on the PGA Tour and has had a very solid season to this point -- was top 10 at the Masters and The Players.Â
Bryson DeChambeau ($6,900): I know he missed four straight cuts after his great showings at the Masters and RBC Heritage, but this feels like the type of event that DeChambeau is made for. I think his approach to the game will help him at a really difficult track like Oakmont, and his problem in those missed cuts was not taking advantage of birdie chances on easy tracks. I think he's best when he's grinding it out on a tough course, and there are none tougher than Oakmont. Also, it took serious stones to dump his free spot as the U.S. Amateur champion and then go out and qualify to earn that spot back. I like that.Â
Rafael Cabrera-Bello ($6,800): Cabrera-Bello has serious game, and I think he'll be around for the weekend at Oakmont with a chance at a top 25, which is all I ask for in this spot. He's played well at tough courses with a T11 at Doral and T17 at the Masters this season and hopefully will reward us for this value play.Â
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