What is David Johnson's Fantasy value as a member of the Houston Texans?

The dust has settled after the DeAndre Hopkins trade, and Houston's decision to part ways with one of the NFL's top players remains puzzling on many levels. The Vikings getting a first-round draft selection and multiple other picks in exchange for Stefon Diggs just days after the Hopkins trade just further enforced what a head-scratching move it was by the Texans.

I broke down the Fantasy impact of both the Diggs and Hopkins blockbuster trades, and while the outlook for some players affected is still cloudy, one thing is quite clear. The move from Arizona to Houston presents a massive Fantasy upgrade for David Johnson.

Despite being listed as healthy, Johnson couldn't get on the field for the Cardinals after the Kenyan Drake trade. He logged just a 20 percent snap rate from Week 10 on, and even during the season, the writing was on the wall that 2019 would be Johnson's last year with the Cardinals. Just a day prior to the trade, the Cardinals gave Drake a one-year $8.5 million deal. It was clear that if Johnson was in Arizona in 2020, he would start the season playing a reserve role of some kind.

Instead, Johnson wound up on the Houston Texans, and he and Drake are both Fantasy winners.

Workhorse Status

Instead of fighting for playing time against Drake, Johnson stands out as Houston's top back at this point in the offseason. And if Houston Texans coach Bill O'Brien's past RB usage is any indication, the lead back role is a valuable one in Fantasy.

It really hasn't mattered who the lead back is, O'Brien has proven to consistently feature him. He rode Carlos Hyde to one of the most forgettable 1,000 yard seasons in recent memory in 2019, feeding him 245 carries on the year. Hyde ranked 11th in the NFL in carries and 14th in red zone carries, despite being traded to the Texans shortly before the start of the season. Lamar Miller ranked inside the top-12 in rushing attempts in 2017 and 18. Now, O'Brien has a running back that he hand-picked and traded away his star receiver for. You better believe that David Johnson is going to be fed carries as long as he's healthy.

Whether or not the former top Fantasy back can capitalize on the carries is up for debate.

Are the Skills Still There?

As Napoleon Dynamite astutely put it, "Fantasy drafters only want players who have great skills! You know like nunchuck skills, bow hunting skills, computer hacking skills."

In 2016, we saw Johnson's sick skills on full display, as he finished with one of the highest-scoring Fantasy seasons of the past 20 years. He did what few other running backs have ever done in the history of the NFL, catching 80 passes for 879 yards and finishing with over 2,000 scrimmage yards. Since then, injuries have derailed the career of the back who once looked to be one of the most promising talents in the NFL.

Here's the thing about Johnson's amazing 2016 season, though. As a rusher, he was average. His goal line role on a high-scoring Arizona offense resulted in 16 touchdowns as a rusher, but he totaled just 1,239 rushing yards on 293 carries (4.2 YPC). PFF gave Johnson a rushing grade of 68.3, which ranked 17th among qualified running backs.

In 2019, Johnson's PFF rushing grade was 68.9. It was 70.7 prior to getting injured. Both marks are improvements from his career average, and 70.7 would have been the highest mark he's posted in any single season. So, as a rusher, at least, Johnson's skills seem intact, even if not spectacular.

What was so impressive about Johnson's 2016 was his contributions as a pass-catching weapon out of the backfield. His PFF receiver grade (90) was higher than any player other than Julio Jones and Mike Evans.

DJ had just a 74.5 receiver grade in 2019, but that number suffered greatly after the injuries. Prior to Week 8, Johnson posted a receiver grade of 84.1, which is significantly higher than what he's finished with in any season other than 2016. His 1.84 yards per route run prior to his Week 7 injury was actually higher than his 1.73 mark from 2016. After returning from injury, Johnson was targeted just six times on 61 routes, which resulted in a 0.90 yards per route run. He was used as a decoy more than anything, as he was clearly not part of the offensive gameplan after the Drake addition.

Will the Targets be There?

The pre-injury numbers for DJ suggest that the ability to be a dominant weapon as a receiver is still there. Will he get the opportunity to showcase it while playing in O'Brien's offense, though? The Texans are the only team in the NFL to rank in the bottom-five of the league in total targets to the RB position in each of the past four seasons. Johnson saw an eye-popping 120 targets in 2016. For reference, Houston's running back group combined for just 72 targets last year.

If there is one silver lining, it is that Houston traded away the man responsible for over 30 percent of their targets over the past few years in exchange for Johnson. DeAndre Hopkins is not replaceable with any one player, so Houston's offense will have to look different in 2020 than what we've seen in years past. That could mean an emphasis on getting the ball in Johnson's hands out in space. That's speculative, of course, and the Texans do still have Duke Johnson for DJ to compete with for targets. So, I'd expect a decrease in the 5.5 targets per game Johnson has averaged over the past four seasons.

Takeaways

David Johnson has been one of the most polarizing figures in Fantasy over the past few seasons, and after landing in Houston, he has rediscovered Fantasy relevancy and a chance to break all of our hearts again. Given Bill O'Brien's past, expect DJ to be force fed the ball on the ground.

Johnson has never been an efficient rusher, though. Even in his RB1 Fantasy season, he averaged just 4.2 yards per carry and was graded as PFF's 17th best rusher among qualified backs. Prior to his slew of injuries last year, DJ's efficiency as a rusher and receiver were only slightly below his career-best marks from 2016, which would suggest that he still has some juice left in the tank after a few down years.

The real concern is what type of role Johnson will have in the passing game. The Texans have ranked in the bottom-five of the NFL in RB targets during each of the past four seasons, and DJ will compete with Duke Johnson for passing down reps. If DJ isn't heavily involved as a receiver, then he is just a league-average rusher running behind a bad offensive line on a team that SportsLine's model has projected for just 7.7 wins.

That is far from the stereotypical profile of a productive Fantasy RB. To be relevant in Fantasy as a non-receiving back on a league average team, you have to bring elite efficiency as a rusher, like Derrick Henry, Nick Chubb, or Josh Jacobs. Not belonging in that category, Johnson is either going to need the Texans to change schematically and feature the RB position in the passing game more, or he will have to get lucky in the touchdown department.

Assuming his health holds up, Johnson should be able to outproduce Carlos Hyde's Fantasy finish as the RB26 in 2018. Expecting much beyond that requires a leap of faith regarding Houston's use of the RB position in the passing game. Johnson's current ADP of RB28 seems a bit too low, but I don't see myself drafting him as a top-20 RB in 2020.