After a week off early in the season, Formula 1 will resume on Sunday when the 2025 Japanese Grand Prix is held at the Suzuka International Racing Course. Lando Norris of McLaren won the first race of the 2025 F1 season, and he's looking to put an end to Max Verstappen's four-year reign as world champion after giving his longtime friend a run in 2024. McLaren did overtake Red Bull Racing for the F1 constructors' championship, and they'll field two of the top-three favorites in the 2025 Japanese Grand Prix odds, with Norris priced at +120 and Oscar Piastri (the winner in China) at +300. After claiming pole position, Verstappen at +195. George Russell (+1800) is next on the F1 odds board. 

The lights go out at 1 a.m. ET on Sunday, and SportsLine's proven computer projection model simulated the Japanese GP 2025 10,000 times, creating a surprising leaderboard.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary Formula 1 prediction model takes into account a slew of factors, including track history and recent results.

The model has been scorching hot when it comes to picking Formula 1 race events dating back to 2021. It nailed both of Charles Leclerc's wins in 2022, and at the 2021 Mexican Grand Prix, the model was strongly backing Verstappen as its top pick. The result: Verstappen dominated the field and ran away with a surprising victory. 

It followed that up by calling Verstappen's win at the Rolex Emilia Romagna GP in April and nailed Verstappen to win in Belgium, the Netherlands, Japan, the United States, Mexico and Abu Dhabi. It also called all 19 of Verstappen's wins during the 2023 season and nailed each of his first seven wins in 2024. 

It also predicted Lando Norris's 2024 wins in the Netherlands (+200), Singapore (+190) and Abu Dhabi (+250) as well as his win to start the season at the 2025 Australian Grand Prix (+185). Anyone who followed the model's lead on those plays has seen HUGE returns!

The Suzuka Circuit is an 18-turn, 3.608-mile track designed and operated by Honda. It first hosted the Japanese Grand Prix in 1963 and has hosted 34 of the 36 times that the Japanese Grand Prix has been held since it returned to the Formula 1 schedule in 1987. Verstappen is the three-time defending champion at Suzuka and Lewis Hamilton's five career wins in the Japanese Grand Prix are second only to Michael Schumacher (six).

Now, the model has dialed in on the 2025 Formula 1 Japanese Grand Prix and just released its coveted picks and leaderboard projections. 

We can tell you the model is predicting a points finish (top 10) for Aston Martin's Fernando Alonso that would pay out +235. Alonso is off to a sluggish start this season with no points in his first two starts, but it's not purely for a lack of speed in his Aston Martin. Teammate Lance Stroll finished sixth in Australia and was eventually moved up to ninth to collect points again in China after three post-race disqualifications.

Last season, Alonso was ninth in the F1 standings and more than tripled up his Aston Martin teammate in points, and he was a stunning fourth in the standings in 2023. The 43-year-old Spaniard has earned points in each of his last three trips to the Suzuka Circuit, and he's also a two-time Japanese Grand Prix winner (though one of those victories came at Fuji Speedway in 2008). Look for the veteran to adjust after a week off to contemplate what went wrong in his two DNFs to start the season and get on the board with points for the first time in 2025.

The model has also made its win prediction and is also targeting one significant underdog to make a charge up the leaderboard! Anyone who backs this driver could hit it BIG. You ABSOLUTELY need to see who he is before locking in any Formula 1 Japanese GP picks of your own.

So who wins the 2025 Formula 1 Japanese Grand Prix, and which SERIOUS longshot could be in contention? ... Join SportsLine right now to see the full projected Japanese GP leaderboard, all from the model that 26 of Verstappen's 30 wins since the start of 2023 and called Norris' wins in the 2024 Dutch Grand Prix, Singapore Grand Prix, Abu Dhabi Grand Prix and the 2025 Australian Grand Prix!